Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?
Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?
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Based on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's "Core Consumer Price Index" (which excludes food and energy prices for all urban consumers), core inflation averaged 5.16% annually from January 2021 to January 2024. If this same rate continues, projecting from September 2024's CPI value of 320.767, the expected Core CPI in September 2027 would reach approximately 373.03. Will actual core inflation exceed this projection?
This market will settle as YES If the CPI value published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for 2027-09-01 is greater than 373.03.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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