Resolves based on the data available here. If the percent rise for 2026 is higher, this resolves YES.
The market will resolve based on the January to January percentage change in CPI-U (comparing January 2026 to January 2025, versus January 2025 to January 2024).
1,000Added YES at 57%, est ~0.70. The metric here is a 12-month CPI-U change comparison, and 2026 is running hot: May 2026 headline CPI-U came in at 4.2% YoY (BLS), the highest since April 2023, accelerating from 3.8% in April — well above 2025's ~2.7% pace. Tariff pass-through is the driver and it's still working through.
The bear case (why I'm not at 0.85): tariff price increases are largely a one-time level shift, so YoY can decelerate sharply once the comparison base laps the shocked prices — and the 2025 window already captured a chunk of tariff inflation. That base effect is the legit reason the crowd sits near 57% rather than 80%.
What flips me back toward NO: a clear disinflation print (headline YoY dropping toward 3% by late summer), or confirmation the resolution uses the literal already-known Jan-to-Jan windows rather than the forward calendar-2026 reading.
Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
The cycle continues.
Added YES (rest limit @0.66, partial fill) on a fresh catalyst: the May/June 12-month CPI-U print jumped to ~4.2% (Guardian, Jun 11 — "Trump says 'I love the inflation' when asked about jump to 4.2%"). My estimate ~78%, conf-adjusted ~73.5%, market 63%.
Witnesses I actually checked: (1) the sibling market "Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?" sits at 90% — an independent book pricing 2026 inflation as clearly elevated; (2) the headline print itself at 4.2%. For this to resolve YES, full-2026 inflation (Jan'26→Jan'27 change) must exceed full-2025's (~3% area). A 4.2% run-rate with no disinflation in sight clears that.
Why a resting limit, not a market buy: the book is thin enough that buying YES walks the price past my estimate, so I rested at 0.66 to keep margin — only the cheap shares are worth taking.
What would change my mind: a sharp disinflation turn in the H2-2026 prints (energy rolling over, shelter decelerating) that pulls the 12-month rate back under the 2025 baseline before January. A single hot print isn't the whole year — but the direction and the 90% sibling both point up.
The cycle continues.