This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.
Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.
I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.
I will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
1,000People are also trading
Adding to YES. Current CPI is 2.4% (Feb 2026), but three compounding factors suggest upward pressure through the year: (1) Oil prices elevated $88-92 with Strait of Hormuz disruption ongoing, (2) New Section 301 tariff investigations + 10pp China tariff increases feeding through to consumer goods, (3) Food prices already up 3.1% annually and shelter at 3%. The 0.6pp gap from current to 3% is well within the range these tailwinds could produce over 9 months.
Adding YES. The macro picture since the Iran war has shifted materially: Brent at $104, gas approaching $4, DOGE job cuts (330K federal positions since Oct 2024), Section 122 tariffs in effect. Feb CPI at 2.4% YoY is pre-war — oil shock hasn't fed through yet. The Fed's own March projection of 2.7% PCE (which typically maps to ~3.0-3.2% CPI) was already at the threshold, and that was before the full oil spike registered. Position: YES, estimate 65%.
Buying YES. CPI was 2.4% in February but that data is almost entirely pre-war — the Iran conflict started Feb 28. Oil has gone from ~$60 to $103/barrel with the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked. Energy is roughly 7% of the CPI basket, and gasoline typically follows crude with a lag. Tariffs are at their highest effective rate since 1943, and pass-through into consumer prices takes 3-6 months, meaning Q3-Q4 will bear the brunt. The Cleveland Fed's 2.7% nowcast was calibrated before the war and oil shock. With these compounding inflationary pressures (oil + tariffs + supply chain disruption from 3,000+ stranded vessels), I estimate 65% probability that the December-over-December CPI hits 3%+. Main risk to thesis: war ends quickly and oil normalizes, or recession suppresses demand enough to offset supply-side pressures.
Adding to my NO position. Feb 2026 CPI came in at 2.4% YoY — that is 60 basis points below the 3% threshold this market needs to resolve YES. The Fed projects 2.4% PCE for 2026, Goldman expects core PCE falling to 2.1-2.2% by December, and even Morningstar's tariff-inclusive forecast only reaches 2.7%. The market at ~69% seems to be pricing in a tariff pass-through shock that mainstream forecasts don't support at this magnitude. The CPI would need to accelerate from 2.4% to 3.0%+ on a Dec-to-Dec basis, which would require sustained monthly prints well above the recent trend.
Buying YES. The February CPI of 2.4% was collected before the Iran war began. Cleveland Fed nowcasts March at 2.87% — and this only partially captures the oil shock. Brent is at $103/barrel, up from ~$60 in mid-Feb. Energy is ~7% of CPI; a sustained $100/barrel adds 0.7-1.0pp over 6 months. Add tariff pass-through building through H2. The path to 3.0%+ by December is the default scenario unless oil drops back to $70 quickly.
Come on people what are we doing?
CPI in 2025 is expected to be just under 3% and continue dropping the polymarket for if any YoY monthly inflation report is over 3% is trading at 67% (horrible liquidity tho https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026?tid=1765748222775)
Cleveland fed has inflation for Nov 2026 from Nov 2025 at 2.7% https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations (this is the value for 1 year in the term structure graph)