This market resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index release for May 2026 reports that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, all items, seasonally adjusted, increased by at least 0.4% from April 2026 to May 2026. Use the first BLS Consumer Price Index release for May 2026, specifically the seasonally adjusted 1-month percent change for all items / headline CPI-U. A reported +0.4% or higher resolves YES; +0.3% or lower, including zero or a negative reading, resolves NO. This is not a core-CPI market. Exclude the all items less food and energy / core CPI series when resolving. If BLS later revises the May 2026 CPI data, use the first official May 2026 CPI release unless BLS issues a correction before this market resolves. If the release is delayed, wait for the first BLS May 2026 CPI release unless no such release is available by July 31, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. BLS' release calendar lists Consumer Price Index for May 2026 on Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The BLS CPI page says the next CPI release is scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the April 2026 summary reported headline CPI-U rose 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, so the May value is not known yet. Resolver/source surfaces: - BLS CPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - BLS June 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/06_sched_list.htm - BLS CPI page: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Will May 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?
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Ṁ100Jun 10
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Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?
80% chance
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