Is this market non-predictive?

Fun•Predictions on Predictions•Self-resolving•Unranked

182

Ṁ12K

Ṁ190

resolved Aug 22

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if this market gets tagged as non-predictive. (and it is shown to be non-predictive at any point before close date).

Otherwise, resolves NO.

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Will Biden's approval rating be higher than -14.3 at end of August? (possibly self-resolving, see description)

64% chance. The resolution criteria for this market depends on whether it is marked with the non-predictive tag at close. If the market is tagged non-predictive, then it resolves to whether Biden's approval rating on August 31 is more positive than his current approval rating (net 14.3 disapprove). Resolution source will be https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. If no value is available there for the exact date of August 31, we'll use the closest date afterwards with data available (September or later). If the market is not tagged as non-predictive, then it resolves to its price at close. I won't remove or add the non-predictive tag myself, I'll leave it up to the people managing that tag to decide how they want to label this market. Good luck! 🙂 Inspired by https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/will-this-question-be-marked-nonpre?r=QQ [link preview]

bought Ṁ250 of YES

resolves YES

predicted YES

I posted it in the Discord, so maybe it will be tagged with the real Non-predictive label, resolving the controversy once and for all.

bought Ṁ250 of YES

bought Ṁ65 of NO

@JimHays

predicted YES

I showed that it is “non-predictive”, in that it has been tagged “non-predictive” before close, consistent with the market criteria. The toggle you are showing is about whether it has been marked “Non predictive”, which doesn’t match the market criteria.