Which 2028 US Senate elections will a Democrat win?
9
Ṁ850Ṁ3.4k2028
96%
California (Incumbent - (D) Alex Padilla)
92%
Maryland (Incumbent - (D) Chris Van Hollen)
92%
Illinois (Incumbent - (D) Tammy Duckworth)
90%
Connecticut (Incumbent - (D) Richard Blumenthal)
90%
Oregon (Incumbent - (D) Ron Wyden)
90%
New York (Incumbent - (D) Chuck Schumer)
90%
Washington (Incumbent - (D) Patty Murray)
90%
Hawaii (Incumbent - (D) Brian Schatz)
89%
Vermont (Incumbent - (D) Peter Welch)
87%
Colorado (Incumbent - (D) Michael Bennet)
85%
New Hampshire (Incumbent - (D) Maggie Hassan)
76%
Georgia (Incumbent - (D) Raphael Warnock)
75%
Arizona (Incumbent - (D) Mark Kelly)
67%
Pennsylvania (Incumbent - (D) John Fetterman)
67%
Wisconsin (Incumbent - (R) Ron Johnson)
65%
Nevada (Incumbent - (D) Catherine Cortez Masto)
59%
North Carolina (Incumbent - (R) Ted Budd)
47%
Ohio (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)
35%
Iowa (Incumbent - (R) Chuck Grassley)
34%
Alaska (Incumbent - (R) Lisa Murkowski)
Incumbents listed are a guide only and have no effect on the answer. Market answer resolves yes if ANY Democrat wins that seat
Resolves according to the winner of the 2028 us senate election in the state listed for that answer.
This is for the regular 2028 election, if a state has a special election as well as a regular, resolves based on the regular only.
Resolves yes if the Democratic candidate on the ballot wins, or an independent who caucuses or plans to caucus with the Democrat, wins.
This market can resolve early based on projections by associated press or another trusted outlet. If an independent wins and it is unclear how they will caucus, that answer will wait to be resolved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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