Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Plus
40
Ṁ43782029
95%
Metaculus
87%
Polymarket
81%
Good Judgment Open
80%
Kalshi
79%
Manifold
41%
Insight Prediction
25%
PredictIt
18%
Fox News' America Predicts
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@MikhaFischler But then, it would eventually resolve YES, so the initial YES bets will turn out profitable anyway, right ?
@MikhaFischler It just depends on people's psychology. Some people like it to be the "right" probability rather than just the option that's most likely to cash out eventually
@Bayesian I mean, a platform could still exist and operate old questions while not opening new questions. So Manifold could in fact resolve no here, or any of these other options could resolve no while still existing.
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