Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
110
1kṀ28k
Dec 31
49%
chance

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

  • Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

    • Method: The outcome will be determined using lmarena's designation.

    • Definition: An LLM is considered open if it is listed as something other than 'proprietary'.

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@jim Is "open weights" is sufficient to count for this?

@DanHomerick the plan is just to use lmarena's designation. If it's listed as something other than "proprietary" will probably count.

Accord to NYT? Never. Highest Eli score would b due to “copying”, “trickery”, “undisclosed info in the 1st page of disclosure doc”, “conspiracy”…besides “we don’t use Elo anymore”.

Next article “China threatens the world with leading LLM model”

reposted

This market splits the manifolders in half

hey @Bayesian don't be pusillanimous, place your bets!

@jim sorry what, the probability of this is like 10%

oh, open model. nvm

hmmm yeah i'll buy this up

@Bayesian ya I had the same reaction... I still think there's less than 40% chance of this by EOY tho, tbh

filled a Ṁ1,500 YES at 52% order

ig google might cook up some decent OS stuff

as might meta

bought Ṁ90 YES

arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Sss19971997/best-open-weight-llm-by-eoy-2025-by

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