Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
16
1kแน€2993
Mar 20
47%
chance

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

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แน€1,000
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hey @Bayesian don't be pusillanimous, place your bets!

@jim sorry what, the probability of this is like 10%

oh, open model. nvm

hmmm yeah i'll buy this up

@Bayesian ya I had the same reaction... I still think there's less than 40% chance of this by EOY tho, tbh

filled a แน€1,500 YES at 52% order

ig google might cook up some decent OS stuff

as might meta

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