Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
54
1kṀ8210
Mar 20
38%
chance

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

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@jim Is "open weights" is sufficient to count for this?

Accord to NYT? Never. Highest Eli score would b due to “copying”, “trickery”, “undisclosed info in the 1st page of disclosure doc”, “conspiracy”…besides “we don’t use Elo anymore”.

Next article “China threatens the world with leading LLM model”

reposted

This market splits the manifolders in half

hey @Bayesian don't be pusillanimous, place your bets!

@jim sorry what, the probability of this is like 10%

oh, open model. nvm

hmmm yeah i'll buy this up

@Bayesian ya I had the same reaction... I still think there's less than 40% chance of this by EOY tho, tbh

filled a Ṁ1,500 YES at 52% order

ig google might cook up some decent OS stuff

as might meta

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