What will be NASA's global land-ocean annual temperature anomaly for 2023?
16
1.8kṀ24k
resolved Jan 12
100%99.8%
1.14°C or above
0.0%
1.00°C or below
0.0%
1.01°C - 1.03°C
0.0%
1.04°C - 1.06°C
0.0%
1.07°C - 1.09°C
0.1%
1.1°C - 1.13°C

NASA's annual GISS temp anomaly as listed in the GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius (base period: 1951-1980), for the year 2023 "AnnMean" column "J-D." The market will settle on the first published number; later revisions will not matter.

Data here:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

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2023    87   98  120  100   94  108  119  119  148  134  143  137    117 112     88  105  115  141  2023
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year

Per https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
So 1.17
@ScottSupak Resolve please

@ChristopherRandles Thanks, was having trouble loading the page, but got the 1.17 from their tweet.

A similar market but finer grained. Could be useful for arbitrage.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-10-for-each-001c-2023-temperat

Pays 10% for each 0.01C 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.05C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period
50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.15C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.05C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.06C claims pays 10% and so on.

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