Will Manifold Markets have an explicit rule against assassination markets?
21%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$325 bet
This question resolves YES if at any point this year, Manifold states in public (e.g. in "Above the fold", or on the about page) that assassination markets and similar are subject to removal. Jun 21, 4:53pm: I've realized the resolution of this market may end up being ambiguous. I've sold all my shares (at a loss) and will not be trading any more here, so that my position doesn't bias the resolution.
MartinRandall
Martin Randall bought M$10 of NO
I don't think any life insurance market will get enough liquidity this year to make it worth hiring an assassin. Also, bets are public and betting large that someone will die shortly before they are assassinated may get some attention from the authorities.
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EnopoletusHarding
Well, nobody's cared to do anything about this question for a while: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-vladimir-putin-be-assassinated
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Undox
Undox bought M$5 of NO
I doubt it, it would fall under removing "inappropriate" content, but you wouldn't need to point it out.
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ScottLawrence
@Undox If manifold admins clarify that assassination markets are always inappropriate, I think I would count that as a positive resolution of this question. A visible pattern of removing assassination markets, though, won't count unless it's confirmed publicly. Seem reasonable? (I've sold my shares because my position was causing me to want the resolution rules to be a certain thing.)
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ScottLawrence
Scott Lawrence bought M$16 of YES
While I wish it weren't so, this seems like it might be strategically necessary as more people come on and we get more bad actors. I'm against this rule if it's possible to avoid it. Nevertheless, I'm betting YES since I'm not sure what alternative there will be once the first negative news article hits.
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ScottLawrence
Scott Lawrence sold M$7 of YES
See description: I've sold my shares, and won't trade any further in this market.
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