This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the "Pro-Woke" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%).
If the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO.
The "Woke Vibe" Index Criteria
The index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI. Each metric measures a different facet of "woke" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values).
1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound
Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release)
Question: "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing oneโs gender."
2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
2. The "Systemic Racism" Acknowledgement
Poll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release)
Question: Agreement that "Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages."
2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI "Democracy at a Crossroads", April 2, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
3. The "Toxic Masculinity" Rejection
Poll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release)
Question: Disagreement with the statement: "Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine."
2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is "Woke".
4. The "Rainbow Norms" Check
Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release)
Question: Moral acceptability of "Gay or lesbian relations."
2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
5. The "Climate Priority" Metric
Poll: Gallup Environment (March/April release)
Question: "Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth."
2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025)
Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".
If a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A.
Once the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This poll came out in the second half of October for the last two years; I have set the close date accordingly.
Update 2026-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on updated poll results (3 of 5 questions now available), the remaining two PRRI American Values Survey questions must average 57.5% to trigger a YES resolution (a 5% increase from the 2025 baseline of 52.5%).
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People are also trading
@ChurlishGambit the description specifically stated that the market would only N/A if two Qs were missing
@realTomBayes Aren't you the kid that hacked Quroe? Why on Earth have you been allowed back into the site? There are no rules? You can just hack other users now with no consequences?
@Jack1 it was annoying enough to find and check the criteria that I really don't feel like doing another one (would need to at least replace the one question that didn't get asked this year), but if someone else makes one I'll trade in it
Market was ~23% when I bet; I've got it ~5%. With 3 of the 5 polls in and netting to zero, the two PRRI items both need to jump about 5 points. The "too soft and feminine" one has sat at 53โ54% for years. https://prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025-PRRI-American-Values-Survey-Topline.pdf
@Creagle He bothered to link, you could have bothered to click through and add more context than just a number
Over half of Americans (51%) โ 75% of Democrats vs. 27% of Republicans โ agree with the idea that generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages, compared with 45% who disagree.
And again:
Americans are more likely to agree than disagree with the statement โGenerations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantagesโ (51% vs. 45%). Agreement with this statement has gone up 9 percentage points (up from 42%) since the question was first asked in 2015.
Three-fourths of Democrats (75%) agree that generations of slavery and discrimination have given white people unfair economic advantages, compared with around half of independents (52%) and one-quarter of Republicans (27%).
Americans who most trust mainstream TV news (65%) are most likely to agree, followed by 50% who do not watch TV news, 25% who most trust Fox News, and only 13% who most trust far-right TV news.
Among religious traditions, the majority of Black Protestants (69%), other non-Christian religions (66%), Jewish Americans (64%), religiously unaffiliated (61%), Hispanic Catholic (55%), and Hispanic Protestants (53%) agree that generations of slavery and discrimination have given white people unfair economic advantages. Fewer white Christian groups agree, including about four in ten white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (45%), Latter-day Saints (42%), and white Catholics (39%), and one-third of white evangelical Protestants (32%).
Christian nationalism Rejecters (76%) are more likely than Skeptics (50%), Sympathizers (34%), and Adherents (35%) to agree with the negative effects of generations of slavery and discrimination.
Nearly seven in ten Black Americans (68%) agree that generations of slavery and discrimination have given white people unfair economic advantages, followed by 57% of AAPI, 53% of Hispanic and multiracial, and 46% of white Americans. White Americans with a four-year college degree or higher are more likely than white Americans without a four-year degree to agree (54% vs. 41%).
While there are no differences by gender, there are some differences by generation. A majority of Gen Zers (54%) and millennials (55%) agree that generations of slavery and discrimination have given white people unfair economic advantages, compared with 47% of Gen Xers, 50% of baby boomers, and 45% of members of the Silent Generation.
@realTomBayes These two results cancel out the Climate Priority result from last month (it increased by 4% and each of these decreased by 2%), so the remaining two questions need to average a 2.0% increase for the more woke option for the market to resolves YES.
These last two questions (both from the American Values survey) need to average 54.5% to resolve YES. They averaged 52.5% in 2025.
@SaviorofPlant Actually, wait, I can't do math. The overall average needs to move up by 2% and we have a null result from 3/5 of the questions. This means these last two questions need to average 57.5% to trigger a YES resolution, a 5% increase from 2025.
what on earth does "morally wrong" mean in the conext of divorce? morally wrong to whom? the people at the wedding?" ๐คฃ
@0xseraphim RW people (mainly, but not exclusively, men) want to end divorce. They do not want wives to be able to leave a marriage, they find that morally wrong.
