This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the "Pro-Woke" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%).

If the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO.

The "Woke Vibe" Index Criteria

The index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI.[1] Each metric measures a different facet of "woke" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values).

1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound

• Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release)[2]

• Question: "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing one’s gender."

• 2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025)

• Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".[1]

2. The "Systemic Racism" Acknowledgement

• Poll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release)

• Question: Agreement that "Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages."

• 2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI "Democracy at a Crossroads", April 2, 2025)

• Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".[1]

3. The "Toxic Masculinity" Rejection

• Poll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release)[3][4]

• Question: Disagreement with the statement: "Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine."

• 2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025)

• Woke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is "Woke".

4. The "Rainbow Norms" Check

• Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release)[2]

• Question: Moral acceptability of "Gay or lesbian relations."

• 2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025)

• Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".[1]

5. The "Climate Priority" Metric

• Poll: Gallup Environment (March/April release)

• Question: "Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth."

• 2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025)

• Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke".[1]
  
  If a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A.
  
  Once the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This usually happens in September or October; I have set the close date accordingly.