Will Manifold revert the loan fee back to 0% (+M0) within a week
48
1kṀ5427
Jan 15
30%
chance

https://manifold.markets/post/interest-of-5-on-all-positions-loan

Resolves YES if a new policy allows >80% of Manifold users to take 0% interest daily loans every day* at no cost, within a week of the above announcement.

*Possible ambiguity here: See https://manifold.markets/SavioMak/will-manifold-revert-the-loan-fee-b#4k4y50bn0c

Yes this closes one day early.

  • Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that even if the interest rate per day matches the loan rate, this is still insufficient to resolve YES. The market only resolves YES if users are guaranteed to never lose mana on any possible loan (e.g., it would resolve NO if interest only pays out after holding a position for 1 year, since you could lose mana by taking a loan and selling shares immediately).

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I just realized that possibility of an announcement of temporary reversion, e.g. "We will revert back to 0% for 2 weeks and then we will use another new system". This is a bit ambiguous in the current resolution criteria. I want to resolve this sort of announcement to YES but interpreting what I wrote yesterday literally it seems like it would depend on what "take [...] daily loans every day" means.

I don't have a conclusion yet. What do you guys think? If this really ended up mattering I will let mods resolve since I have a position here.

bought Ṁ7 YES

I hope so.

0.05% of 500 = 0.25 MANA per day

@Areal doesn't this mean loan payments could exceed the value on on a market, especially substantially on a very long term market?

@BlackCrusade what the sence in 100 years long markets?

bought Ṁ50 NO

how would this resolve if the loan rate matches the interest rate (so it's nominally positive, but effectively zero % bc loans and interest balance out?)

@brod Only if you are guaranteed to never lose mana on any possible loan then I would say it resolves YES. For example it resolves NO if the interest only pays out after you hold a position for 1 year, because it is possible to lose mana if you take the loan and sell the shares immediately.

@SavioMak do we know whether the current interest rate pays per day or per year?

@SavioMak This should also require that you get interest if you sell some or all of your position (or cancel it with an opposite bet). At the moment don't get interest in this case, but still have to pay loan fees.

@Mochi idk but reads like per year, note that per day is still insufficient.

@dp9000 Yes, this is part of what I meant by "never lose mana on any possible loan". At least I intended to convey this meaning.

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 60% order

edited title to match description

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