https://manifold.markets/post/interest-of-5-on-all-positions-loan
Resolves YES if a new policy allows >80% of Manifold users to take 0% interest daily loans every day* at no cost, within a week of the above announcement.
*Possible ambiguity here: See https://manifold.markets/SavioMak/will-manifold-revert-the-loan-fee-b#4k4y50bn0c
Yes this closes one day early.
Links for people reading in the future:
New Financial System: https://manifold.markets/post/new-financial-system
Which Manifold loan system do you like more?: https://manifold.markets/SG/which-manifold-loan-system-do-you-l
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that even if the interest rate per day matches the loan rate, this is still insufficient to resolve YES. The market only resolves YES if users are guaranteed to never lose mana on any possible loan (e.g., it would resolve NO if interest only pays out after holding a position for 1 year, since you could lose mana by taking a loan and selling shares immediately).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,803 | |
| 2 | Ṁ3,225 | |
| 3 | Ṁ757 | |
| 4 | Ṁ466 | |
| 5 | Ṁ345 |
People are also trading
Balancing the books is a moral imperative. Default, and pay double.
@Quroe How did you come across this? Do you send it to users when you think they might default? You definitely should.
@Velaris I play Honkai: Star Rail casually. I'll give them the free advertising and say that the game is genuinely fun and visually stunning for a free to play gatcha game.
Many of the characters in their in-universe gigacorporarion have trailers that feel very "Manifold" to me.
I will occasionally pull this trailer out when I see somebody all-in their account on a singular market. I will also pull this one out from time to time too when I'm feeling pompously, arrogantly overconfident in something.
The guy who makes these changes bet the market from 8 to 52 last night, and you all think he can't do it?
He can probably just hit some revert buttons XD And you betcha he's got incentive now!
(also, I love the little event markers on the market graph - how do I do that on my own markets?)
in general it will be good to adjust loan rate in response to inflation not just picking some random rate
I just realized that possibility of an announcement of temporary reversion, e.g. "We will revert back to 0% for 2 weeks and then we will use another new system". This is a bit ambiguous in the current resolution criteria. I want to resolve this sort of announcement to YES but interpreting what I wrote yesterday literally it seems like it would depend on what "take [...] daily loans every day" means.
I don't have a conclusion yet. What do you guys think? If this really ended up mattering I will let mods resolve since I have a position here.
@SavioMak I'd also be interested to know how "let's just use both systems" will resolve.
Edit: I reread the resolution criteria - would resolve YES, right?