Which Manifold loan system do you like more?
48
Jan 18
New system (margin loans + 5% interest)
Old system (daily free loans)
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In addition to all the major technical/economic problems with the new system laid out in previous threads, it's also just complicated and unfun. It feels like a chore to think about.

@xjp It's simple, when you're considering a trade just make sure you add in the interest rate to calculate the true ROI, factoring in how long you expect to hold the position and how far out the resolution will be (some previously negative ROI bets will now be positive). But don't do this for unranked markets. Or markets that may never resolve. Also if the market has a significant chance to N/A, you'll need to adjust for that.

Is this "like" as in enjoy more, or is it about what will make the site work well?

@AhronMaline which will you enjoy more

Having more control over when to take out or pay back the loan is great, but it's not worth the cost when loans were completely free before.

Having both systems would be nice!

I really appreciate that you took the time to open a poll. I think that's what should happen for most decisions except for those that are unpopular but necessary to keep manifold afloat.

I voted for the old system, but simply because I used the old system and I would not use the current one, but I would not be opposed to its existence if anyone were interested in it.

@Emanuele1000 nostalgia

I have taken some time to consider this but I'm probably going to just vote See Results:

Genuinely, it seems like you want BOTH systems.

The daily free loan is a genius proposition that increases user retention with low risk and makes people feel like there's something to come back for. It was probably a little too generous overall.

The margin loans with interest also seem like a nice feature for users who are interested in them, but with P2P loans available it's not clear how necessary this has ever been.

If I had to pick one I'd say the old system but probably with modifications.

@Eliza what modifications would you want?

@SG

I started typing things but it's going to be way too much for a single comment. I'm just going to pick a selection and keep it really short:

  • I should be able to see all of my outstanding loans in a single place (new column on user profile Trades tab would be a perfect match).

  • I should be able to pay back the loan on a market if I'm uncomfortable with its size.

  • I should be able to mark a market as "not taking loans" if I think it's volatile and I don't want to be in a hole.

  • The baseline system is already complicated enough that the median user only "roughly" understands it. Don't over-weight any argument against complexity -- it's going to be fairly complex no matter what. It's more important to have a complete and coherent plan than one that every user can fully understand with 3 sentences of explanation.

  • I still like the idea that 1/2 of your daily loan is computed in the current fashion and the other 1/2 is computed based on current value of the shares. (There is an entire book here about how to avoid 'gaming' this but it's certainly possible.)

  • If a loan is underwater you should claw it back at a rate similar to the rate it was doled out. Don't leave the user with a 1000 mana negative balance on the last day if they could have taken it back 25 at a time for a year.

  • Commission some users to come up with a justified plan for the loan rate/curve/risk metrics that will work within the system you want. You have some incredibly dedicated users who care about this stuff and can give you something tuned to the type of trading you want to see on the site. Way better than just guessing.

@Eliza Also, you absolutely need to avoid blowing up users who have established considered positions based on previous iterations of the rules. There are any number of ways to make this right, from "you're grandfathered in" to "here's some mana to fix your position".

It's a really good thing here to have a plan prepared/announced for a period of time before enacting it.

Idea: free daily loans like the old system, but you get a discount if you pay back the loan early, almost as if you had virtual interest on the position. Is this the best of both worlds?

Thank you, market context AI generator. You have kept me abreast with only the most factual and up to date of details upon which to base my vote

@EnopoletusHarding This is your moment! Ask if a closed poll can be reopened.

@Eliza oops, didn't mean to close this

STOP THE COUNT

Dang, 3 minutes in and I'm already too late ๐Ÿฅบ

Best would be to have both types of loans: slowly accumulating daily free loans that make long-term investments more economically feasible, and quick, high-interest margin loans for short-term opportunities and speculation

@Simon74fe I've seen several people make this argument now, it sounds good.

I've also seen people say that all of this is too complicated and it's not worth it.

I like the new feature that lets me see my total outstanding loans and to make partial payments whenever I want. But that feature is independent of the system, so I'm not sure I like the new system more.

Try to make an argument for why I should pick "New System"

@Eliza you can borrow however much you need to trade when you need it

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