MANIFOLD
Will someone deliver 4 kiwis to my doorstep?
106
แน€1kแน€9.9k
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
YES

My doorstep, in good condition, I actually satisfactorily receive them, before (approximately) market close.

I'll place a single no bet at question creation, and won't bet after that.

  • Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative delivery methods beyond Amazon are possible. Creator is open to adding other items to the wishlist if suggested.

  • Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator commits to not taking actions to substantially cause kiwi delivery, specifically:

    • No contractual agreements, promises, or financial transactions related to kiwi delivery

    • No new trades or limits (existing limit will remain)

    • No subsidizing the market

    • No buying kiwis (store, Instacart, or from other Manifold users)

    • No promises to repay anyone

    • No bribes relevant to this market

Creator may still promote the market (e.g., posting on Twitter) or call attention to it.

  • Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple deliveries are acceptable - kiwis do not need to arrive in a single delivery. However, only whole and intact kiwis will be counted toward the total of 4 (fractional kiwis will not count).

  • Update 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market refers to fruit (kiwifruit), not kiwi birds.

Market context
Manifold Gourmet Cuisine
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Easier to track: https://manifold.markets/Alva/will-someone-send-me-150-mana-befor?r=QWx2YQ

I'm not sure how y'all let me go this long without an update, but here it is:

https://manifold.markets/MaxE/will-someone-deliver-4-kiwis-to-my-El0cLUuP6E?r=TWF4RQ
This market was too easy

How

Does anybody want to claim responsibility?

@Quroe "That's four small kiwis for a man." These indelible words I spoke as my delivery fell upon his doorstep.

@LukeHorgan

270 mana for 4 kiwis, so 67.5 mana per kiwi, so $0.68 per kiwi, a surprisingly normal price, not drastically different from what I'd expect to see as the price label in a store

@TheAllMemeingEye I wasn't confident that the kiwis would make it.

Prediction markets have officially replaced buying stuff

@nikki This will revolutionize the economy.

@Quroe unless you bet on no

Memes made manifest.

@Quroe looks loke those are not Kiwis, but kiwi fruits

@EvanDaniel Iโ€™m surprised no one bet it up to 100% before you resolved it. It was only at 72%.

@EvanDaniel Please save the produce stickers on a post-it note or something.

@NzJack0n This means it didn't really replace buying things because the person who did this didn't make a profit from it.

@notrealDonaldTrump More research is needed?

@Quroe

@EvanDaniel There is fur on them, maybe they are growing into new kiwis. @MrBasil returns.

@EvanDaniel @TheAllMemeingEye Shall we induct it into the pantheon? https://manifold.markets/topic/certified-manifold-artifacts?r=UXVyb2U

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@NzJack0n do you remember 2 pizzas for 20000 bitcoins?

@nowayitsfree Iโ€™ve heard of it

@Eliza

already - this page is full of Kiwis (Jack is NewZealander)

@Quroe ah nice, previously I only added it to cuisine since the fruit are edible, but yeah the sticker board should qualify as an artifact too :)

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