Will Russia have won its war with Ukraine by the end of the year?

Ṁ282Ṁ4.1k

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

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Will resolve when, in my best judgement, Russia has either won the war or when it has clearly failed to do so. If Russia has not yet won by the end of the year resolves as no. (A draw counts as no.)

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current situation goes into direction "everyone loses, war gets back to stalemate". Maybe the russia would gain some victory not worth at all costs (even when counting only costs on russian side)

The only winning move is not to play.

Russia is advancing slower than expected, but if you look at the number of troops each side has it is hard to see how Russia can possibly lose (https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-how-big-are-their-militaries-12542052).