Who will win the Russia-Ukraine War?
Plus
20
Ṁ8862030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
49%
Stalemate
38%
Ukraine
13%
Russia
Will Resolve by 2030, or sooner if it becomes clear that one side has achieved the victory conditions.
Resolves Ukraine if Ukraine manages to retake and defend the majority of lands captured by Russia as of December 2023.
Resolves Russia if Russia manages to capture and defend half of all pre-war Ukrainian land.
Resolves Stalemate if neither of these conditions occur by 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Jono3h Crimea was defacto held by Russia before the war, however if Ukraine recaptured Crimea it will almost certainly indicate a Ukrainian victory.
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