Basic
16
646
2030
48%
Stalemate
37%
Ukraine
14%
Russia

Will Resolve by 2030, or sooner if it becomes clear that one side has achieved the victory conditions.

Resolves Ukraine if Ukraine manages to retake and defend the majority of lands captured by Russia as of December 2023.

Resolves Russia if Russia manages to capture and defend half of all pre-war Ukrainian land.

Resolves Stalemate if neither of these conditions occur by 2030.

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what about Crimea

@Jono3h Crimea was defacto held by Russia before the war, however if Ukraine recaptured Crimea it will almost certainly indicate a Ukrainian victory.

@JohnOFarrar same applies to the de facto territories of the DPR and LPR as of January 2022?

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