Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2023?
13
455Ṁ1254resolved Jan 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%71%
The same
9%
Better
20%
Worse
I'll be referencing this
https://manifold.markets/calibration
Starting Brier score: 0.16781
To resolve as "better" or "worse" it should vary by more than 0.01
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ103 | |
| 2 | Ṁ94 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?
Will Manifold improve in July?
Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
38% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
9% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
88% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?
63% chance
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
71% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
82% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
58% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
67% chance