
Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing?
13
Ṁ130Ṁ1k2035
1.3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.
To resolve NO Artemis 3 must be canceled or rescoped to not include a moon landing.
Landing failure resolves NO; any failure after an astronaut walks on the moon resolves YES.
Launch vehicle, landing vehicle, and other details are irrelevant.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
97% chance
Will Artemis III launch before 2027?
1% chance
Will Artemis II crew successfully complete lunar flyby and return to Earth?
90% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?
94% chance
Will the Artemis 2 astronauts return on schedule?
75% chance
Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
3% chance
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?
22% chance
Will Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
96% chance
Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon?
50% chance