Will Astra's Rocket 4 achieve orbit on its first launch?
Basic
3
Ṁ136
Jan 2
15%
chance

Rocket 4 is a two-stage liquid fueled rocket. The first stage is powered by two licensed Firefly Reaver engines, and the second stage is powered by a single Hadley Ursa Major engine. The first flight is scheduled for late 2023.

For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means the rocket reaches orbital velocity.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

What if it never launches? Astra goes bankrupt, or cancels the project, or similar before the first launch. Does this resolve No or N/A?

@EvanDaniel If it never launches then the market resolves N/A. I don't think I've made a market with an ambiguous conditional like this, there is a separate market for if it will ever happen.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules