Will Astra's Rocket 4 ever achieve orbit?

Question

Rocket 4 is a two-stage liquid fueled rocket. The first stage is powered by two licensed Firefly Reaver engines, and the second stage is powered by a single Hadley Ursa Major engine. The first flight is scheduled for late 2023.

For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means the rocket reaches orbital velocity.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Sailfish/will-astras-rocket-4-achieve-orbit)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (6 traders, as of Jan 30, 2026).