Conditional on Wagner Group gaining control of nuclear weapons, will they have the ability to detonate them?
4
Ṁ110Ṁ42resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria is obviously fairly unclear, resolves to my best judgement. I won't bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
8% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
35% chance
Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
85% chance
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
8% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
21% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
30% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
13% chance