Conditional on Wagner Group gaining control of nuclear weapons, will they have the ability to detonate them?
4
110Ṁ42resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria is obviously fairly unclear, resolves to my best judgement. I won't bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
14% chance
Will the Wagner Group actually start a coup by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
16% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
35% chance
Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
85% chance
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
16% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
15% chance