What happens to the USA-Iran war when the 60 days War Powers Resolution end?

Question

I'd be interested in what traders think the Executive would use as legal justification to extending the conflict if Congress is against it (assuming we get to that). I'm hoping some of you will suggest new options for that.

All options that require the war to surpass the 60 days resolve NO if it doesn't.

In theory, this resolves early May, giving us a few extra months in case of shenanigans.

I will not trade in this market.

Update 2026-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait ~30 days after the 60-day War Powers Resolution period ends before resolving, to account for ongoing uncertainty and potential restart of strikes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, A military commander refuses an attack order on the basis it is now unlawful is most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of May 23, 2026).