Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, within six months of Donald Trump's approval rating falling below 35%, he is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, convicted by the U.S. Senate, and removed from office. The approval rating must be determined by a reputable polling organization, such as Gallup or Reuters/Ipsos. The six-month period begins on the date when the first poll reports an approval rating below 35%. If these conditions are not met within that timeframe, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Impeachment is a two-step process in the United States. First, the House of Representatives must pass articles of impeachment by a simple majority vote. If this occurs, the process moves to the Senate, where a two-thirds majority vote is required to convict and remove the president from office. Historically, no U.S. president has been removed from office through impeachment; both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached but acquitted by the Senate, and Richard Nixon resigned before the House could vote on impeachment. (en.wikipedia.org)

As of April 2025, Donald Trump's approval ratings have been reported as follows:

• Navigator Research (April 8, 2025): 44% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

• Cygnal (April 8, 2025): 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable.

• Reuters/Ipsos (March 31-April 2, 2025): 43% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

• Fox News (March 14-17, 2025): 49% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

• Gallup (March 3-16, 2025): 43% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

• NPR/PBS News/Marist (March 3, 2025): 45% favorable, 49% unfavorable. (freep.com)

These figures indicate that, as of the latest available data, Trump's approval rating has not fallen below 35%.

Considerations

• Timing of Approval Ratings: Approval ratings can fluctuate due to various factors, including political events, economic conditions, and international affairs. Traders should monitor multiple reputable polling sources to identify if and when Trump's approval rating falls below 35%.

• Impeachment Process Complexity: Even if the approval rating drops below 35%, initiating and completing the impeachment process is challenging. The process involves investigations, hearings, and votes in both the House and the Senate, which can be time-consuming.

• Political Dynamics: The likelihood of impeachment and removal is influenced by the political composition of Congress. A Congress controlled by the president's party is less likely to pursue impeachment. As of June 2025, the composition of Congress should be considered when evaluating this market.

• Historical Precedents: No U.S. president has been removed from office through impeachment. This historical context suggests that, even with low approval ratings, removal from office is unprecedented and would require significant political will and consensus. (en.wikipedia.org)

Traders should consider these factors when making predictions in this market.