Resolution Criteria

A simple majority is needed in the House for impeachment. The market resolves YES if the House of Representatives votes to impeach Trump for a third time before January 1, 2027. The market resolves NO if no third impeachment vote occurs by that date. Resolution will be determined by official House voting records available at Congress.gov.

Background

Trump was impeached twice during his first term, with his second impeachment occurring a week before he left office. During his second term, multiple impeachment articles have been introduced, including by Representatives Shri Thanedar in May 2025 and Al Green in May 2025. A controversial war with Iran has amplified impeachment calls for Trump.

Considerations

A third impeachment would likely face significant political barriers due to the current Republican-controlled House and Senate. However, if Democrats win back the House, there will likely be serious pressure to impeach Trump a third time. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, which could shift congressional control before the market's resolution date. Even if Democrats control the House in 2027, conviction would require a two-thirds Senate majority, which is unlikely given Republican control.

This description was generated by AI.