Will Democrats lose their majorities in the House and Senate in 2022?
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Ṁ72kresolved Nov 23
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022
Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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Vox has declared the GOP the winner of the House of Representatives: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23439492/midterm-elections-2022-results-house-majority-republicans
Another arb: https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/will-the-gop-control-the-us-house-o
Manifold really needs a way to disincentivize essentially duplicate markets - like popping up "this may be a duplicate of these markets" while making a market.
@MattP Yes and no. There's inevitably variations in exact resolution criteria that can sometimes prevent them from being direct arbitrage - but there's also reputational mechanics to consider. If you're a well-regarded market creator, your market is likely to attract more interest from those who want a fair resolution, even if yours wasn't the first market on the subject.
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