Will Democrats lose their majorities in the House and Senate in 2022?

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resolved Nov 23

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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

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predictedNO

Vox has declared the GOP the winner of the House of Representatives: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23439492/midterm-elections-2022-results-house-majority-republicans

These markets are likely to resolve the same.

predictedYES

It’s not clear whether this market is checking for “Democrats lose control of both the House and Senate” or “Democrats lose control of the House OR Senate”.

predictedNO

@Kronopath the former - losing control of both.

predictedNO

Well, that's by far the best interpretation in my mind since the title is "lose their majorities" plural. The vox article isn't very clear about it, I agree, but I think that's what they meant too.

32% on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

538 has this at 54%

Another arb: https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/will-the-gop-control-the-us-house-o Manifold really needs a way to disincentivize essentially duplicate markets - like popping up "this may be a duplicate of these markets" while making a market.

@MattP Yes and no. There's inevitably variations in exact resolution criteria that can sometimes prevent them from being direct arbitrage - but there's also reputational mechanics to consider. If you're a well-regarded market creator, your market is likely to attract more interest from those who want a fair resolution, even if yours wasn't the first market on the subject.