MANIFOLD
Balance of Power in US Congress after 2022 Midterms
54
Ṁ1.9kṀ4.8k
resolved Nov 17
100%29%
Republican House, Democrat Senate
0.1%Other
61%
Republican House, Republican Senate
1.3%
Democrat House, Republican Senate
8%
Democrat House, Democrat Senate

Resolves the same as this PredictIt market https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election. There are 4 possible outcomes based on whether Democrats or Republicans control the House and the Senate. Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-11-07 10:59 pm

Market context
US Politics
Politics
US 2022 Midterms
US 2022 Elections
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Why hasn’t this resolved yet?

@Treldman Oh wait the House, duh LOL

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/ download the "Model Outputs" for 538's predictions.
Arbitrage of https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft and https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-democrats-lose-their-majoritie
1.7% is too low for this stage in the election for any outcome, frankly

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