TomShlomi avatar
Feb 1, 2023
Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?
This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market #Politics #USCongress #USA
Conflux avatar
Conflux bought M$34 of NO3 months ago
per FiveThirtyEight forecast
Jonathan avatar
Jonathan bought M$20 of NO7 months ago
The President's party is far less susceptible to the midterm curse in the Senate than in the House. I see a Democratic Senate and Republican House in 2023.
Conflux avatar
Conflux bought M$50 of YES7 months ago
The Republicans are solid favorites, though… I think the sixties is about where this market should be.
Conflux avatar
Conflux bought M$25 of NO7 months ago
Same reasoning as my bet in the other Senate market: Cook says Dems only need to win 3/4 tossups. Which isn’t implausible.

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