Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?
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Ṁ260kresolved Feb 1
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This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/.
#Politics #USCongress #USA
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Democrats will keep control of the Senate, CNN projects, after victories in close contests in Nevada and Arizona.
@jack to be sure, the chance of something changing before Feb 1st is extremely low. But nonzero - medical emergency leading to retirement & seat switching parties, Joe Manchin switching parties, etc... these are possibilities. Slim ones though.
@MattP Yes, these are slim possibilities, I don't know exactly how likely but I'm pretty sure less than 1%
@MP To elaborate more, I'm seeing 83%, 59%, 67% on this. If they were maximally correlated, this would price this market at 33%. If they were independent, that would price this market at 22%.
Selling to arb against my market https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of-8d067eb38c33
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