Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?
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resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/. #Politics #USCongress #USA
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#US 2022 Midterms
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This is a long wait for 0.9%. Apropos of nothing, I put in a helpful limit order at 1% just in case anybody wants to bail out.

Democrats will keep control of the Senate, CNN projects, after victories in close contests in Nevada and Arizona.

predicted YES

@jack yes when it comes to election results. However, it's not Feb 1st yet.

@jack to be sure, the chance of something changing before Feb 1st is extremely low. But nonzero - medical emergency leading to retirement & seat switching parties, Joe Manchin switching parties, etc... these are possibilities. Slim ones though.

predicted NO

@MattP Yes, these are slim possibilities, I don't know exactly how likely but I'm pretty sure less than 1%

With 48 seats called for each of D and R, and Alaska having two R candidates, it comes down to 2-of-3 of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia.

@BoltonBailey You know it's correlated, right?

@MP Yep, I would expect so.

@MP To elaborate more, I'm seeing 83%, 59%, 67% on this. If they were maximally correlated, this would price this market at 33%. If they were independent, that would price this market at 22%.

I want to sleep, but people who were trading it at 25% were crazy, IMHO. It's three toss-ups slightly tilted to democrats, but they still need to win two of them. And stuff is correlated.

@MP I want to sleep so why I sold

predicted NO

Latest 538 puts chances at 35%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ for reference
per FiveThirtyEight forecast
The President's party is far less susceptible to the midterm curse in the Senate than in the House. I see a Democratic Senate and Republican House in 2023.
Selling to arb against my market https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of-8d067eb38c33
The Republicans are solid favorites, though… I think the sixties is about where this market should be.
Same reasoning as my bet in the other Senate market: Cook says Dems only need to win 3/4 tossups. Which isn’t implausible.

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