Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?

442

510

Ṁ260K

Ṁ5.6K

resolved Feb 1

Resolved

ALL

This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/. #Politics #USCongress #USA

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ7,964
2		Ṁ2,263
3		Ṁ923
4		Ṁ759
5		Ṁ628

20 Comments

294 Holders

2.8K Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ17 of YES

This is a long wait for 0.9%. Apropos of nothing, I put in a helpful limit order at 1% just in case anybody wants to bail out.

bought Ṁ10,000 of NO

Democrats will keep control of the Senate, CNN projects, after victories in close contests in Nevada and Arizona.

predicted YES

@jack yes when it comes to election results. However, it's not Feb 1st yet.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@jack to be sure, the chance of something changing before Feb 1st is extremely low. But nonzero - medical emergency leading to retirement & seat switching parties, Joe Manchin switching parties, etc... these are possibilities. Slim ones though.

predicted NO

@MattP Yes, these are slim possibilities, I don't know exactly how likely but I'm pretty sure less than 1%

sold Ṁ10 of YES

With 48 seats called for each of D and R, and Alaska having two R candidates, it comes down to 2-of-3 of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia.

@BoltonBailey You know it's correlated, right?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@MP Yep, I would expect so.

bought Ṁ80 of NO

@MP To elaborate more, I'm seeing 83%, 59%, 67% on this. If they were maximally correlated, this would price this market at 33%. If they were independent, that would price this market at 22%.

sold Ṁ78 of NO

I want to sleep, but people who were trading it at 25% were crazy, IMHO. It's three toss-ups slightly tilted to democrats, but they still need to win two of them. And stuff is correlated.

@MP I want to sleep so why I sold

bought Ṁ30 of YES

bought Ṁ10 of NO

predicted NO

Latest 538 puts chances at 35%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ for reference

bought Ṁ34 of NO

per FiveThirtyEight forecast

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The President's party is far less susceptible to the midterm curse in the Senate than in the House. I see a Democratic Senate and Republican House in 2023.