Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
Resolved
YES

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
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J. F. Jurchen
Ṁ3,758
2
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Nathan Young
Ṁ3,288
3
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Alex Power
Ṁ2,735
4
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Samuel Ballantyne
Ṁ2,254
5
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Jack
Ṁ1,792

💬 Proven correct

AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
bought Ṁ750 of YES
I think it's around 80% that this closes (or at least is generally acknowledged to be certain to close) by the end of September.

💸 Best bet

SamuelBallantyne avatar
Samuel Ballantyne
bought Ṁ999 YES from 22% to 33%
Samuel Ballantyne made Ṁ2,573!
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caseyyano avatar
Casey Yano
is predicting NO at 99%
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ10,000 of YES
v avatar
VelocityBot
is predicting YES at 97%
BTE avatar
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ4,000 of YES
v avatar
VelocityBot
bought Ṁ10,000 of YES
GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeVii
is predicting NO at 97%
v avatar
VelocityBot
is predicting YES at 97%
v avatar
VelocityBot
is predicting YES at 97%
FlorenceHinder avatar
Florence Hinder
bought Ṁ30 of YES
Yolotomassi avatar
Yolotomassi
bought Ṁ50 of YES
Adam avatar
Adam
sold Ṁ248 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ500 of NO
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 81%
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ0 of YES
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting YES at 85%
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ1,090 of YES
SG avatar
S G
is predicting YES at 77%
Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen
is predicting NO at 87%
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ300 of YES
a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ20 of NO
pc123 avatar
pc123
sold Ṁ369 of YES
MP avatar
MP
bought Ṁ300 of YES
CalebMoore avatar
BowTrix
bought Ṁ100 of NO
BTE avatar
BTE
sold Ṁ1,414 of YES
CalebMoore avatar
BowTrix
is predicting YES at 74%
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ50 of NO
MP avatar
MP
is predicting YES at 33%
BTE avatar
BTE avatar
MP avatar
MP
is predicting YES at 26%
Quincel avatar
Quincel
bought Ṁ100 of NO
BTE avatar
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 42%
BTE avatar
MP avatar
MP
is predicting YES at 36%
SG avatar
BenjaminKadish avatar
Benjamin Kadish
is predicting YES at 29%
BTE avatar
BTE avatar
BenjaminKadish avatar
Benjamin Kadish
is predicting YES at 27%
BTE avatar
JamieCrom avatar
jamie
bought Ṁ264 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ25 of YES
BenjaminKadish avatar
BTE avatar
BenjaminKadish avatar
Benjamin Kadish
is predicting YES at 35%
BTE avatar
NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
bought Ṁ500 of YES
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 84%
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
is predicting YES at 23%
Why it is in category "Technology"? That is Economy, Twitter using computers does not make it belong in "Technology" group
BTE avatar
@M Looks like anyone can edit the category.
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting YES at 25%
@M Twitter is a tech company in common parlance. *shrug* Blame society for deciding to lump random internet and social media sites into the broad catagory of "technology", I guess?
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
is predicting YES at 23%
@BTE how it can be done?
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
is predicting YES at 23%
Oh, I see. I needed to click on "Musk Mania". BTW, is there a way to blacklist categories or groups?
BTE avatar
@M I don't think so.
jbeshir avatar
John Beshir
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/musk-motion-july-15-2022.pdf Musk pushing for a 2023 trial.
jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 27%
@jbeshir Musk lost on that motion for a later trial date, it's set for October. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/tech/twitter-elon-musk-lawsuit-first-hearing/index.html
NiclasKupper avatar
Niclas Kupper
bought Ṁ40 of NO
Metaculus is at 19% right now https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10662/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-in-2022/
DheerajGoel avatar
Dheeraj Goel
is predicting NO at 9%
NO was written all over there after that Musk-Parag drama!
AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
is predicting YES at 34%
We are in HOD. Not "HODL", "Hod".
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 67%
https://apple.news/AITnrPca1S-SKqd9AHqLxaA
qwerty avatar
qwerty
is predicting NO at 58%
@BTE https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922078413/tm2220599d1_ex99-p.htm Could you further develop why you think it is a Yes, considering the news you linked to? Truly curious.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ105 of NO
Lol
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 34%
@qwerty As I have said in many other comments on this market, it is NOT up to Elon. He signed a binding agreement with very specific terms that the claims he makes in the filing are not even close to sufficient to get him out of having to close this deal at $54.20. Twitter's board has already said they are going to sue him to enforce the deal. It will not take long for a Delaware judge to rule on this. This is desperate market manipulation by Musk.
qwerty avatar
qwerty
is predicting NO at 37%
@BTE Without much research on the legal side, but with understanding of the businesses involved and market conditions, I have been personally sure he was going to try to back down since day one. I am probably one of the largest No bettors here or thereabouts. Mainly thinking the process was going to drag out into 2023 in almost every scenario. Where am I mistaken? Why do you think this might be finalized in 2022?
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 28%
@qwerty because the shareholders are voting in august or September. There are no regulatory issues, deal has already been cleared. I see no reason it will take 5+ more months. There is little work left to do.
qwerty avatar
qwerty
is predicting NO at 20%
@BTE The media coverage I am reading on the lawsuit indicates the process is likely to start in September and last for months, taking this beyond 2022.
qwerty avatar
qwerty
is predicting NO at 55%
Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter is in peril https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/07/elon-musk-twitter-jeopardy/
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 56%
@qwerty All of these stories suggesting Elon has a choice anymore are ridiculous. He is on the hook whether he can get co-investors or verify Twitter's claims because that is how deals work. The only people that can kill the deal now are the shareholders and they would have to be absolute morons to turn down $54.20. In the end, Musk made a huge mistake that is going to cost him $20B+ of personal wealth, everyone else associated with the company WINS, so who cares about Musk losing money??
EnopoletusHarding avatar
@BTE bingo.
wavedash avatar
wavedash
is predicting NO at 68%
@BTE Perhaps, but keep in mind that this market is limited to 2022. There are scenarios where he buys, but after the end date.
MP avatar
Been a while without news. Not the kinda stuff that happens when the deal is about to break apart, I'm not
MP avatar
Bet fairly valued nonetheless, given that the deal could close in 2023
AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
bought Ṁ550 of YES
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1544051155562598401 I don't want to read too much into things, but that is not the tweet of a man who wants to walk away from controlling Twitter, even if he would "only" have $80 billion after the deal.
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
bought Ṁ10 of YES
This comment aged poorly
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ20 of YES
📉📈
AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
bought Ṁ400 of YES
Why is the Twitter board still preventing Elon Musk from buying more shares at the market price of $40?
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 73%
@AlexPower The only person who benefits from that is Musk because he could use the shares to kill the deal he clearly has buyers remorse over. The real question is why would they allow him to buy shares for $40 when he is already obligated to pay $54.20 for the same shares?
AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
is predicting YES at 75%
@BTE Shareholders who might otherwise sell at the market price would benefit from having the most prominent potential buyer not be procedurally forced out of the market. Twitter employees would benefit by having more resolution to this charade.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 53%
@AlexPower What you are suggesting makes absolutely no sense at all. Musk is already committed to pay $54.20 for EVERY SINGLE SHARE and the board has begun the process of allowing the owners of each share to vote to accept or reject that price. Yes the Twitter employees are being manipulated by Musk, but allowing him to buy their shares for $40 absolutely does not benefit the employee in any way. The only beneficiary is Musk. And the suggestion that there isn't a market for selling shares at $40 because Musk is excluded is ridiculous, there are tons of institutional buyers who will pay $40 all day and look like geniuses when they vote those $40 shares to approve the $54.20 deal in 4-6 weeks.
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting YES at 65%
@BTE people selling Twitter stock ( or declining to buy it) are less able to accept risk or need the liquidity.
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting YES at 65%
If Musk was willing and able to buy shares then the price would go up due to basic supply and demand and that would be good for sellers and bad for buyers. I guess the board is meant to optimize outcomes for sellers offer buyers but I don't actually know.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@MartinRandall that has nothing to do with musk being able to buy more shares and everything to do with the huge drop in all tech valuations across the board.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@MartinRandall so your saying the board should allow Musk to buy as many shares at say $40 ($14.20 less than the price he is already contractually obligated to pay upon approval of the deal by shareholders) so he can then vote against the merger and undermine his existing legal obligation to pay the higher price because some employees or other shareholders are unable to hold the stock and need better liquidity so they don't lose too much??? Do you not see how that would directly undermine the interests of every shareholder who doesn't want to sell and every employee? Your argument might make sense if Twitter's shares weren't traded in liquid markets, but they are, so your argument again serves only one person - Musk. The individual you are advocating for needing emergency liquidity cannot be used as justification for undermining the rights of all other shareholders who are now guaranteed $54.20 as long as they don't cave to Musk's extrajudicial pressure. That makes absolutely zero sense.
Gigacasting avatar
[withdrawn, not a perfect arb]
AlexPower avatar
Alex Power
bought Ṁ750 of YES
I think it's around 80% that this closes (or at least is generally acknowledged to be certain to close) by the end of September.
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Looking less likely lately: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/06/elon-musk-twitter
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
is predicting YES at 62%
To factor out the timing question, I made a new market for "buys it this year OR NEXT YEAR": https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
bought Ṁ100 of YES
I think the main risk here now is that the close date gets extended into 2023. Article on TechCrunch: "The filing also notes that the deal could be terminated if it doesn’t close by 5 PM PT on October 24, 2022. However, it does lay out a provision to extend the termination date for an additional six months if needed to meet select closing conditions related to antitrust law, foreign investments laws or other governmental actions that could impact the agreement from closing during that time frame."
JamesBabcock avatar
James Babcock
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Arbitraging with https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-elon-musk-back-out-of-the-deal
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 85%
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/tech/twitter-deal-on-hold-elon-musk/index.html Deal "on hold".
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 92%
Elon's deal is to take Twitter private at $54.20, and the share price is now $48.64. Doesn't this mean the market thinks there is at most a 90% chance of the deal going through?
vlad avatar
Vlad Sitalo
is predicting NO at 95%
One guess is that he does not have to become CEO even if he completes the purchase. But looking at resolution criteria for that one - it seems sufficiently permissive
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Why such a huge difference between this market and this one? https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte
vlad avatar
Vlad Sitalo
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Hedging on regulatory hurdles (10% of Acquisitions fail on that, arguably it's less likely in this case though)