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Why it is in category "Technology"? That is Economy, Twitter using computers does not make it belong in "Technology" group
Oh, I see. I needed to click on "Musk Mania". BTW, is there a way to blacklist categories or groups?
https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/musk-motion-july-15-2022.pdf Musk pushing for a 2023 trial.
John Beshirbought Ṁ1,000 of NO
@jbeshir Musk lost on that motion for a later trial date, it's set for October. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/tech/twitter-elon-musk-lawsuit-first-hearing/index.html
Jackis predicting YES at 27%
Metaculus is at 19% right now https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10662/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-in-2022/
Niclas Kupperbought Ṁ40 of NO
@BTE https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922078413/tm2220599d1_ex99-p.htm Could you further develop why you think it is a Yes, considering the news you linked to? Truly curious.
qwertyis predicting NO at 58%
Gigacastingbought Ṁ105 of NO
BTEis predicting YES at 38%
@qwerty As I have said in many other comments on this market, it is NOT up to Elon. He signed a binding agreement with very specific terms that the claims he makes in the filing are not even close to sufficient to get him out of having to close this deal at $54.20. Twitter's board has already said they are going to sue him to enforce the deal. It will not take long for a Delaware judge to rule on this. This is desperate market manipulation by Musk.
BTEis predicting YES at 34%
@BTE Without much research on the legal side, but with understanding of the businesses involved and market conditions, I have been personally sure he was going to try to back down since day one. I am probably one of the largest No bettors here or thereabouts. Mainly thinking the process was going to drag out into 2023 in almost every scenario. Where am I mistaken? Why do you think this might be finalized in 2022?
qwertyis predicting NO at 37%
Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter is in peril https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/07/elon-musk-twitter-jeopardy/
qwertyis predicting NO at 55%
@qwerty All of these stories suggesting Elon has a choice anymore are ridiculous. He is on the hook whether he can get co-investors or verify Twitter's claims because that is how deals work. The only people that can kill the deal now are the shareholders and they would have to be absolute morons to turn down $54.20. In the end, Musk made a huge mistake that is going to cost him $20B+ of personal wealth, everyone else associated with the company WINS, so who cares about Musk losing money??
BTEis predicting YES at 56%
Been a while without news. Not the kinda stuff that happens when the deal is about to break apart, I'm not
Bet fairly valued nonetheless, given that the deal could close in 2023
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1544051155562598401 I don't want to read too much into things, but that is not the tweet of a man who wants to walk away from controlling Twitter, even if he would "only" have $80 billion after the deal.
Alex Powerbought Ṁ550 of YES
This comment aged poorly
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ10 of YES
Why is the Twitter board still preventing Elon Musk from buying more shares at the market price of $40?
Alex Powerbought Ṁ400 of YES
@AlexPower The only person who benefits from that is Musk because he could use the shares to kill the deal he clearly has buyers remorse over. The real question is why would they allow him to buy shares for $40 when he is already obligated to pay $54.20 for the same shares?
BTEis predicting YES at 73%
@AlexPower What you are suggesting makes absolutely no sense at all. Musk is already committed to pay $54.20 for EVERY SINGLE SHARE and the board has begun the process of allowing the owners of each share to vote to accept or reject that price. Yes the Twitter employees are being manipulated by Musk, but allowing him to buy their shares for $40 absolutely does not benefit the employee in any way. The only beneficiary is Musk. And the suggestion that there isn't a market for selling shares at $40 because Musk is excluded is ridiculous, there are tons of institutional buyers who will pay $40 all day and look like geniuses when they vote those $40 shares to approve the $54.20 deal in 4-6 weeks.
BTEis predicting YES at 53%
If Musk was willing and able to buy shares then the price would go up due to basic supply and demand and that would be good for sellers and bad for buyers. I guess the board is meant to optimize outcomes for sellers offer buyers but I don't actually know.
@MartinRandall so your saying the board should allow Musk to buy as many shares at say $40 ($14.20 less than the price he is already contractually obligated to pay upon approval of the deal by shareholders) so he can then vote against the merger and undermine his existing legal obligation to pay the higher price because some employees or other shareholders are unable to hold the stock and need better liquidity so they don't lose too much??? Do you not see how that would directly undermine the interests of every shareholder who doesn't want to sell and every employee? Your argument might make sense if Twitter's shares weren't traded in liquid markets, but they are, so your argument again serves only one person - Musk. The individual you are advocating for needing emergency liquidity cannot be used as justification for undermining the rights of all other shareholders who are now guaranteed $54.20 as long as they don't cave to Musk's extrajudicial pressure. That makes absolutely zero sense.
[withdrawn, not a perfect arb]
Looking less likely lately: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/06/elon-musk-twitter
Matt Pbought Ṁ100 of NO
To factor out the timing question, I made a new market for "buys it this year OR NEXT YEAR": https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close
Daniel Reevesis predicting YES at 62%
I think the main risk here now is that the close date gets extended into 2023. Article on TechCrunch: "The filing also notes that the deal could be terminated if it doesn’t close by 5 PM PT on October 24, 2022. However, it does lay out a provision to extend the termination date for an additional six months if needed to meet select closing conditions related to antitrust law, foreign investments laws or other governmental actions that could impact the agreement from closing during that time frame."
Daniel Reevesbought Ṁ100 of YES
Arbitraging with https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-elon-musk-back-out-of-the-deal
James Babcockbought Ṁ20 of YES
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/tech/twitter-deal-on-hold-elon-musk/index.html Deal "on hold".
Bolton Baileyis predicting NO at 85%
Elon's deal is to take Twitter private at $54.20, and the share price is now $48.64. Doesn't this mean the market thinks there is at most a 90% chance of the deal going through?
Bolton Baileyis predicting NO at 92%
One guess is that he does not have to become CEO even if he completes the purchase. But looking at resolution criteria for that one - it seems sufficiently permissive
Vlad Sitalois predicting NO at 95%
Why such a huge difference between this market and this one? https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte
Matthew van der Merwesold Ṁ100 NO from 79% to 81%
Future Telling Owlbought Ṁ10 NO at 79%
Sam Spoonerbought Ṁ25 NO from 80% to 79%
stevezbought Ṁ70 NO from 81% to 80%
Abought Ṁ152 YES from 80% to 81%
Abought Ṁ10 YES at 80%
Tomek K ☑️sold Ṁ2 NO at 80%
J. F. Jurchenbought Ṁ10 YES at 80%
Nicolas Delonsold Ṁ21 NO at 80%
Jackbought Ṁ300 YES from 78% to 80%
MCLDbought Ṁ20 NO at 78%
Nathan Wbought Ṁ10 YES at 78%
Evan Richardsbought Ṁ100 NO from 80% to 78%
Victor Levosobought Ṁ90 YES at 80%
Victor Levosobought Ṁ10 YES at 80%
edgrrbought Ṁ10 YES at 80%
Alex Wilsonbought Ṁ100 YES from 79% to 80%
Garybought Ṁ5 NO at 79%
Daniel Koglerbought Ṁ10 YES at 79%
3q8tgfqhuefgbought Ṁ63 YES at 79%
RBGreensold Ṁ36 YES at 79%
Flawless Trainbought Ṁ150 NO from 83% to 79%
Stormtrooper TK-293sold Ṁ2 NO from 82% to 83%
Gigacastingsold Ṁ23 YES from 83% to 82%
Tyler Ebought Ṁ40 YES from 82% to 83%
VelocityBotsold Ṁ10 YES at 82%
Anna Johnstonbought Ṁ10 YES at 82%
Johnny Ten-Numberscreated limit order for Ṁ300 YES at 60%
Johnny Ten-Numberscreated limit order for Ṁ150 NO at 89% (cancelled)
Johnny Ten-Numbersfilled limit order Ṁ250/Ṁ250 NO at 84%
Jackbought Ṁ200 YES from 81% to 82%
Jackbought Ṁ700 YES from 80% to 81%
Johnny Ten-Numbersfilled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 80%
Ella Sandersbought Ṁ10 YES at 82%
Jackfilled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 YES at 76%
VelocityBotfilled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ33 NO at 82% (cancelled)
Nathan Youngbought Ṁ500 YES from 80% to 83%
J. F. Jurchenbought Ṁ200 YES from 79% to 80%
John Beshirsold Ṁ118 NO from 76% to 79%
VelocityBotfilled limit order Ṁ126/Ṁ235 YES at 76% (cancelled)
J. F. Jurchensold Ṁ771 YES from 80% to 75%
Ivanbought Ṁ10 YES at 80%
Gigacastingbought Ṁ300 YES from 78% to 80%
Gigacastingbought Ṁ10 YES at 78%
Yuta Katosold Ṁ20 YES at 78%
Yuta Katobought Ṁ10 YES at 78%