Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) takes action to block, modify, or unwind Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 otherwise.

Because CFIUS can initiate a review even after a transaction has closed, this market will stay open until the end of 2023.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/us-weighs-security-reviews-for-musk-deals-including-twitter-buy

Biden administration officials are discussing whether the US should subject some of Elon Musk’s ventures to national security reviews, including the deal for 

’s Starlink satellite network, according to people familiar with the matter.

One possibility is through the law governing the 

Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

 to review Musk’s deals and operations for national security risks, they said.

The interagency panel, known as CFIUS and overseen by the Treasury Department, reviews acquisitions of US businesses by foreign buyers. It is not clear if a CFIUS review -- which would involve assessments by the Departments of State, Defense, and Homeland Security, among others -- would offer the government a legal way to conduct a review, the people said. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Foreign_Investment_in_the_United_States

 https://www.cooley.com/services/practice/export-controls-economic-sanctions/cfius-overview

 has some background on the CFIUS review process.