🏅 Top traders

Any further thoughts on a subscription?

14*4>50, i think?

I would pay more than $100/year, but I am a power user. I would particularly appreciate more visibility on my markets. I am a mediocre predictor, but am a contender for the top creator chart (top 10 at least, if I keep it up). I make markets because I want information. Getting more information is valuable to me and helps me refine my world view and is fun.

@LarsDoucet Don’t paywall Liam’s entirely tho. Also consider that creators and predictors are two different markets

It was already said, but I believe paywalling loans would harm quality of forecasts on long term market. I am new to the platform (cca 1 month) and my experience is that betting on longer term than cca 1 month locks too much mana to do it. I am betting on longer term questions only because of the loans.

Removing loans entirely seems very bad for long term growth! I recommend changing the speed of loans (1% free, 5% paid maybe)

If the issue is their being newbie-unfriendly, 1% is still an issue.

It might make sense to gate them behind some kind of milestone. Like say 1000M in profits.

Manifold is in any case missing small-scale goals to work towards.

$100 is a lot for most people. I expect if you made it $25 a year, you'd probably get more than 4x the number of subscribers.

@IsaacKing i think at some point there ought to be 2 tiers. One that is very cheap & paywall loans and has other capabilities discussed. Then another that is pricier & is meant for those with lower price sensitivity that has "bot creator", quick loans, no non-Manifold ads (if those were implemented). Need to take advantage of the high-paid software engineers in the Bay Area.

Always have 3 tiers

$25 a year for 1 checkmark by your name
$100 a year for 2 checkmarks
$400 a year for 3 checkmarks

@Sinclair Oh to have 3 checkmarks...

I would buy it, but I'd be concerned that if most users didn't buy it, then without loans, they would make far fewer bets and markets would become much less efficient. Good for me making mana maybe, but not good for the accuracy of markets or level of activity on the site.

@chrisjbillington Another option instead of paygating Loans entirely, would be increasing the cash back rate for subscribers, i.e. increasing their effective leverage. "Double leverage for subscribers" sounds reasonable to me and potentially compelling as a selling point.

@SG Yeah, that would be a better balance. I'd probably subscribe for double leverage.

@SG This is a much better solution. Even with loans, long-term markets are having a hard time getting interest, and getting rid of loans entirely for 95%+ of users would make them even less accurate.

Worth noting that the super long term markets (>50 years) are having the opposite problem where people think they'll be dead by the time the market resolves, therefore spend their mana on bets they know won't win since they'll just get the mana back within a few months and won't care about losing it in 50 years. Increasing the loan rate might make this problem worse.

At launch, no. After seeing everyone with shiny gold badges and talking about new features I don't have access to, maybe I'd give in.

If you're looking for revenue streams: I'd happily spend mana (and thus have a reason to buy it with $) to boost visibility/trading on my markets. Ads are cool, I'm using them, I'd like if there were more. I also made a suggestion at https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-manifold-markets-have-any-mech#pGeGPtwwxhBy62m3NxU7 re subsidized loans + algorithmic boost.

(Or let people pay to promote/subsidize a market, and add something cool like a “blind auction” phase—

Paying to “trade” is dumb; paying for “info” is how “markets” always work)

For "more stuff" I suggest including 1,000 mana/month and make it $10/month with a $100/year discount.

(You might get a little more clever and limit N bets per day, 1 comment per day, if you actually had a monthly option)

@Gigacasting Pay for comments non-gold

Removing loans would destroy your usage

Might pay 10/mo for algo boost and bc UI is no longer rugged every week like before

Would wipe this account under gdpr because I sent 100 for a “year” given the UI rugging, fraudster worship, etc

*before

What if you have to be a Manifold Gold member to donate to charity, and the only option is a 1 year plan 😈

@DavidChee I'd probably support that as long as there were a full exemption to the extent of past net real-money mana purchases and at least a partial one for future real-money purchases. Maybe the exchange rate would be worse in the latter scenario as well, but a full loss of convertability would probably end most mana purchases among non-gold members.

@Jason dw I was just joking I think it would be a terrible idea to do that

@DavidChee It's not ideal, but there has to be a monetization plan at some point and I don't see any in the short/medium run that are both realistic and won't degrade the experience for non-paying users in some fashion.