Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?
129
319k
2030
11%
chance
Someone asked me to put a number our chances of success at a recent EA meetup, and I figured this would be perfect for a prediction market. Famously, Elon estimated: > To be frank, in the early days, I thought there was >90% chance that both SpaceX & Tesla would be worth $0. The press & aerospace / automotive industry at the time (correctly) agreed with me. Also don't know what base rates are -- Manifold raised a seed at $15m, so there's a 66x gain it needs to hit. If that means 1/66 seed stage startups make it to unicorn status, then base rates are 1-2%. Jun 13, 6:24pm: Market resolves NO if by 2031 Manifold is still not worth $1B.
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bought Ṁ800 NO

@jacksonpolack Just in case you might be interested... large limit orders?

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 6% order

@AmmonLam I threw one down at 6%!

@JamesGrugett thanks, I'll think carefully about it at 6%

You didn't specify currency. You are already worth well over $1B Zimbabwean Dollars so this should resolve as YES.

predicts NO

@PatrickDelaney The sign code for Zimbabwean dollars is Z$

predicts YES

@NicoDelon Here's a picture from a shop in Zimbabwe, they use $ not Z$ https://apnews.com/article/1ce81eed4b064a529163513931b30178

@PatrickDelaney Well then that settles it, sure.

predicts NO

@NicoDelon I realize you’re probably being facetious.

predicts YES

@NicoDelon Evidently you're an associate professor of Philosophy? That's cool! Am I being facetious...yes and no - shouldn't markets specify details down to this level of precision? Aren't one of the main applications of prediction markets information sharing? I used to work in manufacturing as a product manager (not in the United States) and it was made very clear across the company to always specify units, currencies...seems extremely normal to me that you always have to specify currency, "$1B USD," and it seems really odd and unprofessional to say, "$1B." If I don't fight and argue for that, then that's like, not thinking precisely, it's letting people just say, "whatever they want to mean anything they want." We got to watch our units.

predicts YES

@PatrickDelaney Further, I understand that Manifold.Markets is a global site - so while the main audience is the US and likely there are few to no participants from Zimbabwe, and likely folks from Zimbabwe would understand it to mean USD, there are very likely participants from Australia, which also use the Dollar, and the difference between AUD and USD could be significant at time of resolution due to some black swan event.

predicts NO

@PatrickDelaney I don’t know if you’ve heard about that thing called context. It’s overwhelmingly clear from the context that we’re talking USD.

predicts NO

@NicoDelon One way you could frame your request though could be: ‘Hey, would you mind adding USD to the description to prevent any confusion? Thanks!’

predicts YES

@NicoDelon Hmm, OK but is that fun though if I frame it that way?

predicts NO

@PatrickDelaney Granted, it’s less fun!

predicts YES

@NicoDelon OK, cool. So it's agreed we're using Zimbabwe dollars. If Zimbabwe gets control of their inflation or pegs their currency to the USD, you win.

@PatrickDelaney Sounds like a ... BTC to Z$ 10 million bet in the style of the hyperinflation market?

A billion dollars is a lot of money.

I love Manifold... but not as much as I love money. Sorry guys!

predicts YES

These shares should actually be real shares in manafold.

predicts YES

@NathanpmYoung There will always be corruption, won't there.

predicts NO
The base rate is much lower, as many start-ups stay valued in the tens or hundreds of millions, which dominates the EV. Not that easy to see a path to 100M revenue within 8 years.
bought Ṁ10 NO

@Gigacasting Especially since Kalshi has a big head start.

FTX was valued at 32B in feb, though surely down since then https://www.investopedia.com/crypto-exchange-ftx-valuation-jumps-5217695 so 25% seems like a lot. @Undox discussion is very interesting.

@agrippa Manifold is now worth more than FTX! We did it!

predicts NO

@SG haha, congrats!

@emmy I assumed this comment was a joke until I noticed the date.