Is the Manifold money supply greater than M$10 million?
22
43
Ṁ880
resolved Dec 21
Resolved
YES

We don't currently track the "mana supply" or quantity of outstanding M$, but we probably will soon...

If the mana supply is greater than $10M at the time someone on the Manifold team calculates this value for the first time, this market affirmatively. (If we don't calculate this value before the 20th, this resolves N/A.)

Methodology: For the purposes of this market, the "mana supply" is equal to the sum of the portfolio value of all users, excluding the house account, @ManifoldMarkets. (Note that this excludes loans and the liquidity locked in each market's liquidity pool.)

Addendum: I will also exclude accounts like @NinthCause where Manifold team members have printed themselves an insane amount of mana, or any obvious attempts to manipulate this market.

Resolution: I wrote a script using the above methodology and the mana supply is Ṁ17 million as of December 21st, 2022.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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With Mark Ingraham creating many spam accounts and spam markets, and farming trader bonuses and referrals, and with the recent API key drama, it may be a good time to do another count.

Does manifold track the mana supply now?

bought Ṁ400 of YES

Given that new users receive 1000 or 500 M at signup, and there are probably ~9k users... I'm on the fringe.

Although:

  • About 1.2 million have been donated to charity so far

  • Total profits on the all-time leaderboard are only ~1 million

It's actually quite hard to tell :)

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Sjlver I think there's a pretty long tail for accounts though. I'm guessing this is more likely to be YES than NO. (~60% maybe?)

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@AndrewHartman You got me hooked :)

Download all users in batches of 1000 (turns out there are about 30k actually):

for i in $(seq 2 50); do echo $i; echo "$(cat manifold-users-$((i-1)).json | jq '.[-1] | .id' | sed 's/"//g')"; curl "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/users?before=$(cat manifold-users-$((i-1)).json | jq '.[-1] | .id' | sed 's/"//g')" > manifold-users-$i.json; sleep 1; done

Sum up the balance and deposits:

cat manifold-users-*.json| jq '[.[] | .balance + .totalDeposits] | add'

= about 38 million. Probably subtract a few owned by the manifold markets account... but still looks like a YES.

predicted YES

@Sjlver That sounds roughly like what I was estimating, but I'll admit I haven't thought enough about your methodology to be sure it hasn't overcounted somehow.

But It's good enough for me to buy some more YES.

predicted YES

@Sjlver A few addenda:

  • Not sure if summing up balances and totalDeposits is the right thing to do... I probably misinterpreted what totalDeposits means.

    • Taking only balances brings the total closer to 10 million.

    • The totalDeposits are safely above 10 million.

  • It feels strange that Manifold allows anyone to enumerate its users so easily.

predicted YES

@Sjlver Summing balance and total deposits is double counting.

In case you haven't, I think it's crucial to convert to double entry accounting.

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