Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Best score on CritPt benchmark (~FrontierMath for physics) by end of 2026
3
Ṁ250Ṁ644
Dec 31
64.2 %
expected
2%
Below 20
2%
20 - 29
4%
30 - 39
10%
40 - 49
16%
50 - 59
29%
60 - 69
18%
70 - 79
15%
80 - 89
3%
90 - 100

https://critpt.com/
Best CritPt score at end of 2026.

Market context
Technology
AI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Benchmarks
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
+17% 1d97% chance
What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?
Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?
91.7
Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?
13
When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
84% chance
What will be the best score (almost resolved) on ProgramBench at the end of 2026?
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
71% chance
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?