Created a bunch of sports markets if anyone wants to copy them for future seasons:
https://manifold.markets/PatMyron?tab=questions

Traders per market for my major annual ~Anglosphere summer sports events:
17 horse racing 🏇
18 men's golf ⛳️
30 women's tennis 🎾

44 men's tennis 🎾

Not sure if most of my markets qualify as they are standard “pick the winner of a game” questions for NCAA/NFL football, but I have tried to come up with some novel ones on those topics too:

I spent many thousands of mana on Sumo markets for the September 2023 tournament but no one wanted to play.

I advertised my markets with a Dashboard, engaged in the comments on a regular basis, and kept adding topical markets as the tournament progressed.

Out of roughly 100 individual match markets, I think about 95% of them, I was the only person to make a pre-match prediction. Everyone else waited until it was over. Either I'm the best Sumo predictor in the entire world or people were just trying to steal my mana.

Here was the main one, plus 5 or more daily matches for every match in the September tournament:

/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2023-september-aki

I was planning on not doing it again in November or modifying my approach. Any tips welcome.

Nothing special but the next two rounds of the qualifiers for Euro 2024 (soccer national teams competition) will be played in the next 5 days and I created a market for each match (44 markets in total).

I created a market for the winner of the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship.

/AlexbGoode/which-team-will-win-the-2024-uefa-e

Does this satisfy the bounty? I was already planning to make markets similar to this for other large ssbm tournaments, it would be really cool to pick up a bounty along the way. The main reason I've only made one market so far is that I don't have that much free mana to spend on them. The reason I chose this specific tournament is that it's my personal favorite that I attend every year.

The new MultiChoice markets are wonderful! 🥰
https://manifold.markets/Yuna/den-broncos-kc-chiefs-oct-12-live-o

DEN Broncos @ KC Chiefs - Oct 12 LIVE on AMAZON PRIME

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Watch live on Amazon if you have Prime in the US (and maybe elsewhere?!) (broadcast starts 4pm PDT) https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0C3WLYMP2 Feel free to add more questions about this matchup, but make sure they have clear resolution criteria which are easy to verify. Otherwise I might just N/A (if that's possible in this format 😂) I'll give my best to resolve options as soon as possible, so don't hesitate to go in in size and with confidence. 🤣 If nothing weird happens, I'll have resolved everything a few hours after the match concludes. Happy predicting 😉 I'm new to this (after lurking for some time) so please be patient with me ❤ TD: Touchdown Spread DEN +10.5 WIN: If Denver's score = 10.5 > KC's score, this resolves to Yes otherwise No. Total Points Over 47.5: If Denver's score + KC's score > 47.5 [link preview]

https://manifold.markets/UniversalFC/will-messi-score-1-goal-before-the?r=VW5pdmVyc2FsRkM

Will Messi score 1 goal before the end of 2023?

91% chance. From Oct 1 forward, for club or country, 1 or more goals.

https://manifold.markets/FrederickNorris/will-john-cena-wrestle-a-match-at-t

Will John Cena wrestle a match at the WWE PLE Crown Jewel in November?

50% chance. John Cena must wrestle a match at Crown Jewel for this to resolve YES. He can be part of a multi-person match or a single, but it has to be a match, not just appear on the show to give an interview.

I noticed there are no markets on the site about (professional/elite) IRONMAN Triathlon. There was no market for the Men's World Championship some weeks ago, but I just created one for the Women's World Championship at Kona.

/Eliza/who-will-win-2023-ironman-world-cha

IRONMAN Triathlon is a popular endurance sport for individuals and also has a professional league with some media spotlight. Individual athletes get sponsorships with various companies.

I'll see if there is any interest in more Triathlon and IRONMAN markets and I also created two new topics: IRONMAN and Traithlon.

Is chess a sport?

https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-tyler1-hit-2000-elo-in-chess-b?r=UGF1bA

Will Tyler1 hit 2000 Elo in chess by 2025?

50% chance. Tyler1 has been obsessing over chess. Will be hit 2000 rapid Elo on chesscom by the end of 2024?

I'm not going to claim this one was novel or new, because some Cycling markets existed earlier, but:

Before I joined the site, there were approximately 30-50 total markets in the Cycling category. I think there are probably somewhere between 300 and 500 by now.

I started making Cycling markets in April 2023 and between @egroj, myself, and a few other creators we now have a pretty nice niche carved out for cycling related markets. We're now starting to see a new group of creators contribute new, inventive markets and most markets are getting 5-10 participants. I have gotten about 15 referrals just for cycling related content.

---

Cycling market types that have been attractive have been:

• Free response, especially since the switch away from parimutuel. These events often have 'favorites' that are somewhere between 10% and 30%, and dozens of 'possible winners'. The new free response mechanism has been perfect for both individual stage/race markets and general classification markets. Out of ALL the questions created in the new free response model, you should find that a significant fraction have been in the Cycling categories. We are very heavy users compared to our community size.
  

• "Transfer" markets. These are speculative markets about whether a rider is going to switch teams in the near future. They compile loads of links in the comments, theories, evidence, hunches, etc. These have been very fun to follow and attracted plenty of participants even though it is not even a 'race' being predicted.

• Tour de France markets. We made dozens of markets specifically for the Tour de France, cycling's biggest event each year. These markets attracted significantly more participation than other markets from smaller races, but many users have seemed to carry on with the site and continue to play through the rest of the season
  
  
  

Some future plans for the cycling markets and things we need to explore more, going into 2024:

- Season-long markets. I have already made a few markets related to the full season, but in the next few weeks it will be a critical time to set up some new ones. Things like cumulative results by a rider or team over the course of a season. Which team will be the best, etc.

- Win/Place/Show markets. If we can improve the Multiple Choice interface for "Sums to more than 1" situations, I think it would be possible to attract more users to bet on a market that rewards people for picking the entire podium rather than just the winner. There is a massive benefit for creators/subsidizers on these markets -- you are guaranteed to get some of your subsidy back if it closes at 60/30/10 rather than 100/0/0/0/0...

- Link previews for multiple choice markets that show MULTIPLE answers. I normally have to take a screenshot of the top 5-8 answers because the link preview does not show anything other than the top percentage. Sharing these links generates clicks and bets quite often, but I wish they showed more info.

This new user seems to have entered the first question about a new-to-Manifold sport, and even included a "sports star" name in the title. It was a few hours before this bounty came up but I think it deserves an award, it fits the criteria perfectly.

https://manifold.markets/RickHiggerson/will-mikaela-schiffrin-win-the-nove

Will Mikaela Shiffrin win the November 2023 FIS Women’s World Cup Slalom at Killington VT?

82% chance.

@RickHiggerson make a post here to claim your bounty!

I just made an entire new category for the Big Bash League and seeded it with 8 season-long questions:

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=big-bash-league

I'll consider it, I haven't yet, don't bounty me, but I wanted to say I bet on a football game here recently after looking at an odds checker website, I thought I had an edge and put a small bet on, but one large enough to pay out. I hadn't considered the Draw outcome strongly enough, and didn't know enough about the teams. Sports markets are probably fun for fans. I learnt something...

I think if you are interested in sports, then "stock" type markets for sports stars could be popular. People love to predict whether some young player is destined for greatness or sure to be a flop. Representing this with a stock-type system seems reasonable.

However, I wonder if they need to pay dividends as a player performs over time. Or something.

If there were stock-type markets for sports right now, I would certainly use them. It sounds fun.

Here is one for you: https://manifold.markets/pav/which-player-will-score-the-most-go?r=cGF2