Make completely uninformed, random trades. Everything cancels out. : )

(Betting M15000 on England NO in the 92nd minute of them being down 1-0 to Slovakia) I knew it would unfold this way

Get your predictions in. Only three hours until the game starts and this market closes.

Hup Holland hup! 🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱

recht recht recht recht

Spain might be overvalued? How many players barred next match? I lost track…

I agree

You guys are much more bearish on England than the bookies https://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2024/winner

England don’t stand a chance against whatever team comes out of the other side of the bracket. I expect whoever wins the Spain/Germany game to be installed as the new favorite, barring a torrent of injuries

These are all UK bookies which generally overestimate England's chances because England supporters tend to bet on England winning even when that is, ahem, optimistic.

So we saying there's free money lying around in UK betting markets? ;)

I was always told this but actually it seems like you're right and it's just a common misconception. England also the favourite with German bookies, apparently!

All of this is because Spain and Germany are facing each other next, once we have 4 semifinals confirmed the winner of that match will assume the favourite position. Right now, they are splitting votes.

asinine take...a one-off match is a pure tossup, France and Spain are not particularly overpowering themselves and there's lots of precedent of teams getting better as the tournament progresses and peaking at the right time

Agree with everything you said. I was explaining why England were bookies' favourite before the start of quarters. Germany and Spain were both ~18% while England were 20+. Now Spain would probably be bookies favourite with probability close to 35%.

i was replying to mjh claiming "England don’t stand a chance against whatever team comes out of the other side of the bracket.", not you but yeah.

@KevinBurke ouch

I thought for some reason it was 100 mana to add options, not 1000. Oh well, my loss. Any brave soul willing to add Georgia, Turkiye, Slovenia, and Romania?

For "plus" markets it is more expensive to add options. The good news is you get back most of it if it stays around the same value at market close

I haven't done the math on any of that, I'm probably losing mana left and right. Do we even get trader fees anymore for answers we add to other creators markets? The 5 mana a trade was so nice before, now I'm walking around with a tin cup looking under couch cushions. 😆

DEFINITELY not England lol

yeah never england

Germany, Spain, France, Portugal , Belgium and Denmark are on the same half, so this market already bets on that side 69%, so England has the "easy" side

that's great but they're just going to end up losing to slovakia or something