[these resolution criteria are a work in progress for the next several days and may change. caveat mercator]
This market resolves to YES if during 2025:
People's Republic of China or affiliated military or maritime forces physically prevent vessel access to any of Taiwan's main ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, Taipei, or Hualien)
And one of the following sources confirms a "blockade": AP, Reuters, Financial Times, NYT, Taiwan Defense Ministry, US Defense Department, Japan Defense Ministry, or NATO
Edge Cases:
"Military exercises" that meet the above criteria DO count, even if labeled as exercises
Blockades starting in 2025 and extending to 2026 COUNT
Failed blockades COUNT if China made a clear attempt meeting the criteria, even if Taiwan/allies successfully defended against it
Blockade of outlying islands only (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) does NOT count
Cyber attacks or economic sanctions alone DO NOT count without physical maritime enforcement
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,590 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,559 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,530 | |
| 4 | Ṁ714 | |
| 5 | Ṁ425 |
People are also trading
Analyst Velina Tchakarova for 2026:
2) No military attack by China on Taiwan (further rise of tensions)
See here:
https://manifold.markets/uair01/velina-tchakarovas-three-no-war-pre?r=dWFpcjAx
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-launches-live-firing-drills-around-taiwan-its-biggest-war-games-date-2025-12-30/ Reuters reports a "military exercise" / blockade rehersal
Taiwan's Civil Aviation Authority said that although 11 of Taipei's 14 flight routes were affected by the drills, no international flights had been cancelled. Routes to the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu near China's coast were blocked, affecting around 6,000 passengers.
@KJW_01294 We are not shutting down the route, but you just can't interfere with our excercise just now... lol
It's part of the Money&Macro prediction for 2026. See here:
https://manifold.markets/uair01/which-money-macro-megatrends-for-20?r=dWFpcjAx
I mean... there's a non-trivial case for YES here based on the Dec 29-30 exercises. I don't really think I have a strong opinion either way, but China is doing an "exercise" with live fire that disrupted maritime shipping routes. I doubt any ship has or will attempt to sail through and therefore be physically prevented, though, and media outlets are calling it a "simulated" blockade or similar - there's no one actively claiming this is a real blockade under the guise of a drill (like happened in the leadup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine).
China has demarcated multiple zones surrounding Taiwan that will be under sea and air space restrictions on December 30
...pointing to how China had "completely cut off" air and sea links with Japan for three zones to Taiwan's north....
The island's coast guard said it had deployed large ships to face off against Chinese coast guard vessels near its waters and was coordinating with the military to minimise the drills' impact on maritime routes and fishing grounds.
Taiwan said China’s designated exercise zones, some of which are within 12 nautical miles of its coast, have affected international shipping and aviation routes.
Drill or not, the practical effect of this "exercise" is a blockade of certain sea (and air!) routes to Taiwan. At least per Reuters, the ambiguity here seems intentional:
Analysts say Beijing's drills increasingly blur the line between routine military training exercises and what could be stage-setting for an attack, a strategy intended to give the U.S. and its allies minimal warning of an assault.
@Sketchy my opinion is that this isn't a blockade and that media aren't going to unambiguously describe it as such. I just thought/think that the odds I am wrong about that were a lot higher than the 2% I started the betting at.
@JoshuaWilkes Yea there's no way media unambiguously describes it as a blockade. Many, many outlets are calling it a "simulated blockade" or similar, though. I'm not clear on if that combined with the edge case language around drills counting will sway @SG though.
Can you add "and" to clarify the 2 points under "This market resolves to YES if during 2025:"?
Suppose that an announced blockade / "we're not calling it a blockade for reasons" (like a Maritime Exclusion Zone) is seen as sufficiently credible that third-country civilian shipping drops precipitously without a single physical enforcement action by PRC-affiliated forces. How do you want this question to resolve? (Though maybe the US would use escorted convoys for allied shipping.)
Point 2 ties back to @ian's point about verifying reduction of maritime traffic, which seems closer to what we actually want to measure — physical enforcement is possibly more a means to an end.
Does anyone have access to either Taiwan International Ports Corporation's official website for eg. cargo throughput statistics for the Port of Kaohsiung, or MarineTraffic.com?
@puffymist 2. PRC needs to physically deploy ships, drones, etc around Taiwan to enforce a blockade. Economic or other forms of blockade (which could lead to a reduction in naval traffic) are excluded.
I think specifying a specific threshold for maritime traffic reduction could be bad and lead to situations where this market resolves no on a technicality.
@SG Thanks. I too learn a lot from reading question creators' explanations.
Additional question: in "physically prevent vessel access to any of Taiwan's main ports", do you mean preventing access to at least one main port, or preventing access to all main ports?
@JoshuaWilkes Disagree, if there is a credible naval threat, there may not be any ships which attempt to pass the blockade. In general, over-specification is a big concern for this type of market. It would be bad for a blockade to occur but for this market to resolve no based on a technicality (e.g. there less than 50 intercepted vessels, it only lasts 23 hours, etc.)
@SG oh that's okay, I am more worried about the reverse case, where only one ship is intercepted and it's not a blockade but this criterion is interpreted or insisted to have been met
Seems like way too many words, I think all you need is #3.
How are you going to verify:
The blockade must reduce maritime traffic to affected ports by at least 50% compared to the average daily vessel count from the preceding 30 days
Who cares about this if it's in fact a blockade. What if it's 51 miles?
Maritime interference must occur within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan's coastline
Why at least 3 ports?
@SG good way to stay objective is to not bet on your own markets. I would also advise against deferring your resolution criteria to LLMs, that's how we got an in-browser demo to count as "millions of downloads of AI game".
https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe