[these resolution criteria are a work in progress for the next several days and may change. caveat mercator]

This market resolves to YES if during 2025:

• People's Republic of China or affiliated military or maritime forces physically prevent vessel access to any of Taiwan's main ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, Taipei, or Hualien)

• And one of the following sources confirms a "blockade": AP, Reuters, Financial Times, NYT, Taiwan Defense Ministry, US Defense Department, Japan Defense Ministry, or NATO

Edge Cases:

• "Military exercises" that meet the above criteria DO count, even if labeled as exercises

• Blockades starting in 2025 and extending to 2026 COUNT

• Failed blockades COUNT if China made a clear attempt meeting the criteria, even if Taiwan/allies successfully defended against it

• Blockade of outlying islands only (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) does NOT count

• Cyber attacks or economic sanctions alone DO NOT count without physical maritime enforcement