Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?
108
528
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2030
26%
chance

To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player - for instance, the player character immediately starts moving left when you press the left button.

It's okay if certain parts of the game are not AI-rendered, like UI elements. However, it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. It has to generate the video more-or-less from scratch. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements like characters and scenery during gameplay and simulates their motion, doing this entirely through ML rather than programmatically, similar to OpenAI's Sora. It's okay if the AI starts with a premade textual or visual prompt, but has to be able to generate and animate new visual elements.

The following is speculation, not resolution criteria: What I'm imagining is a very open-ended game where the AI makes up new landscapes and encounters for you on the fly, sort of like the Mind Game in the book "Ender's Game." This seems doable by a very fast version of OpenAI's Sora, where you just ask it to generate video game footage on-the-fly and conditional on the player's button presses.

I may bet in this market.

Markets with the same resolution criteria

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-3b1136cb8e7c

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-30dbd8e5eede

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe (this market)

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.18828 This new technique distills an image generator to let it create 20 high-quality images per second. I don't know if it would extend to a video generator like Sora, but it seems likely. It's a very small step from a fast video generator to an AI-rendered video game - you just have to add controls.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Something that would qualify and seems the most likely to me, actually I have already seen versions of it, is a simple interactive story telling with an image being rendered after each decision. And to satisfy the 1 frame per second constraint it would just animate those images in some simple repetitive way.

@patrik I think that probably wouldn't count, since "the images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player." If the player takes 10 seconds between decisions on average, even assuming the first image after each decision gets rendered quickly after the decision was made, only 10% of images would "depend on the very recent actions of the player."

@CDBiddulph In any game it is the player's choice how much time he will take between actions.

@patrik Not necessarily, if the game doesn't let them input their next decision immediately. The point of that part of the resolution criteria was that the game should mostly be rendered in real-time (like a platformer or a shooter), not periodically rendered (like a visual novel or some turn-based RPGs).

sold Ṁ104 YES

@CDBiddulph If that's how it is.

reposted

considering exponential, most likely yes

New paper on "Genie" from DeepMind: https://sites.google.com/view/genie-2024

As far as I can tell, Genie already qualifies to resolve this market! ...Except for the key detail that the game must get 1 million downloads, and it's currently way too boring and slow to get anywhere close. But this is a significant step forward, coming just a week after I posted the original market! It even generates frames at 1 FPS (the bare minimum for this market), according to one of the authors on Twitter

Genie could enable a large amount of people to generate their own game-like experiences. This could be positive for those who wish to express their creativity in a new way, for example children who could design and step into their own imagined worlds. We also recognize that with significant advances, it will be critical to explore the possibilities of using this technology to amplify existing human game generation and creativity—and empowering relevant industries to utilize Genie to enable their next generation of playable world development.

@CDBiddulph Genie is more like a research project, but yes it def qualifies. I would probably expect that we might see a game like that would get a mil downloads because people would be interested in a game that is fully made using AI even if it is a 2D game

Seems to me like it would be simpler to have the AI generate 3D models, animate them, and let preexisting lighting engines and physics engines handle the graphics rendering. To be 100% clear, that doesn't count, right?

@MichaelWheatley Right, that wouldn't count. There's some discussion of this in the comments of https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g

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