Will China control Taiwan in 2040? | Manifold

Will China control Taiwan in 2040?

21

Ṁ1kṀ2.2k

2040

50%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question resolves to "YES" if for the whole duration of year 2040 mainland China controls majority of Taiwan territory.

Market context

China Taiwan potential conflict

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bought Ṁ15 NO

Think they'll control Taiwan before then, but lose it before 2040

Would love to bet on this but such long-term markets tie up capital for a long period :(

@TedSuzman loans system addresses this. Basically you get your mana back after a year

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