Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Basic
7
Ṁ325
2027
28%
chance

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833:
> The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

Will the first part of this tweet happen?

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Does it have to be multiple Starships or is 1 enough?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Mqrius I was trying to operationalize Elon's tweet. I'd say 1 doesn't count because that wouldn't allow for testing the reliability of landing? Not sure though.

@RyanGreenblatt Personally I'd count 1 because this market is more about whether they send anything at all that window, but it's up to you!

I'll count 1.

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