Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
10
300Ṁ5552027
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833:
> The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
Will the first part of this tweet happen?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@Mqrius I was trying to operationalize Elon's tweet. I'd say 1 doesn't count because that wouldn't allow for testing the reliability of landing? Not sure though.
@RyanGreenblatt Personally I'd count 1 because this market is more about whether they send anything at all that window, but it's up to you!
Related questions
Related questions
When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
3/15/26
Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
30% chance
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
17% chance
Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
26% chance
Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?
20% chance
Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
12% chance
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
10% chance
Will Starship reach Mars by 2028?
16% chance
How many spacecraft will successfully make it to Mars during the 2028-29 Hohmann Transfer window?
Will Starship reach Mars by 2040?
81% chance