Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the White House makes an official public announcement stating that ICE deportations have exceeded 1 million by December 31, 2027. The announcement must come from official White House communications (press releases, statements from the President, DHS Secretary, or other authorized administration officials) and be verifiable through official government sources such as whitehouse.gov or dhs.gov.

For resolution purposes, "deportations" refers to formal removals as reported by the Department of Homeland Security's Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), consistent with how the administration has publicly reported these figures. The market resolves NO if no such announcement is made by EOY 2027, or if official figures show cumulative deportations remain at or below 1 million.

Background

The Department of Homeland Security's FY 2026 budget justification requests funding increases "to support the Administration's strategy of 1,000,000 removals per year." As of January 2026, the Trump administration reported nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S., including an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations and more than 675,000 deportations. However, in December, ICE stated DHS had "removed" 622,000 noncitizens under Trump, whereas the Biden administration carried out 778,000 total repatriations in fiscal year 2024.

Considerations

Discrepancies exist between administration claims and independent data. At the most recent rate for which data exists (September/October 2025), the government would deport under 300,000 people that year, which would be unprecedented in this century, but not close to the administration's target. Additionally, more than 1.6 million immigrants have lost their legal status in the first 11 months of Trump's presidency, including people who applied for and were accepted to come to the country on a wide variety of immigration parole, visa, asylum and temporary protected status programs. The administration's public statements often conflate deportations with self-deportations and those who lost legal status, which may affect how an announcement is framed.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Self-deportations will NOT be counted toward the 1 million deportation threshold for this market's resolution.