This market will resolve to YES if at least one verifiable case occurs where a person who was a U.S. citizen at the time (either by birth or naturalization) is deported from the United States before January 1, 2029.

The market will resolve to NO if no such deportation occurs before January 1, 2029.

• A deportation case does not qualify if the individual has been denaturalized before deportation.

• If a naturalized citizen commits fraud in the naturalization process but is deported while still recognized as a U.S. citizen, it will count.

• A case where a qualifying individual is deported will resolve to YES even if a subsequent judicial order mandates that the individual be returned.

• Update 2025-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

  • Deported requires involuntary removal by U.S. authorities; voluntary departures (for example at a guardian’s request) do not qualify.

  • Cases where voluntariness is unclear (such as minors taken out at a parent’s behest) will remain unresolved until it’s confirmed whether the individual was unwillingly removed.