This market resolves to "YES" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett.
The central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and this related market.
But it will also resolves "Yes" if Caplan 'concedes' early and pays Barnett or promises to.
This market resolves to "NO" if they have not publicly resolved the bet by EOD June 1 2023.
If Matthew Barnett thinks the bet should have already resolved but Caplan has not conceded, it will still resolve NO.
Background:
https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an
In the above post of March 21, Caplan admits that GPT-4 getting an A on one of his exams is a big update and bodes ill for his bet. But he writes "I’m not conceding the bet, because I still think there’s a 10-15% chance I win via luck." This market is about whether Caplan's luck will hold out for ~two more months.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ334 | |
| 2 | Ṁ214 | |
| 3 | Ṁ176 | |
| 4 | Ṁ163 | |
| 5 | Ṁ62 |