I haven’t seen any concession - just to confirm, I didn’t miss one did I

@pmarca said it best—perhaps Ai reveals not how smart computers can be, but how dumb some people are

It’s obvious that his tests do not measure critical thinking (at all) but simply having memorized what “Krugman” and “Landsberg” (?) have said, plus some overly simplistic black and white thinking.

https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an

—-

GPT Retakes My Midterm and Gets an A

When the answers change, I change my mind.

(GPT’s answers are better than his…)

Making it slightly more likely:

https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-4-takes-a-new-midterm-and-gets/comment/14199010

I think if a YES bettor (or anyone else) wants this to resolve soon, something you could do is:
-request the midterm exams from Caplan (or, alternatively, find exams of comparable format and difficulty)

-go ahead and get all of the exams 'taken' by an AI system

-see if an econ grad student would grade them for you

If 5/6 of the exams are plausibly As, this might cause an earlier resolution. Of course, if they're not, then it shouldn't resolve this year.

He notoriously won his brevit bew by holding out. Surely he will delay this one as long as possible

@LachlanMunro *brexit bet

Comment edits on Manifold when

Bryan's bet was brave,
But AI doesn't save.
He may have to give in,
And admit his sin.

I'm curious what it means for Bryan to win by luck. Like, there's a huge war and no one ever gives an AI all of his exams? Or maybe the one exam it took was especially fluky and the others will be way harder for GPT-4?

Presumably someone is already in the process of administering the other 5 exams.

@Rodeo He could win if he dies or if AI progress halts.

@MatthewBarnett seems like AI progress could halt and he still has a good chance of losing. Are you or someone else (e.g. the Collin Gray mentioned in the post) already in the process of administering the other 5 tests to GPT-4?

@Rodeo AI could hallucinate on an exam or two and underperform. That's my guess on what he means by luck.

@Rodeo The problem is that Bryan Caplan needs to grade the exams himself in order for the bet to resolve, and he's allowed to take until 2029 under the terms. Initially I expected him to grade the exams upon request either later this year or next year, but he told me over email that he intends to wait until the deadline to resolve the bet. So, yeah.

@MatthewBarnett ah, gotcha. I guess his most recent post is some evidence that he would resolve if GPT-4 is just obviously consistently doing well on several of his exams. We’ll see!