Will Bryan Caplan concede his AI bet with Matthew Barnett by June 1, 2023?
resolved Jun 2
  • This market resolves to "YES" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett.

    • The central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and this related market.

    • But it will also resolves "Yes" if Caplan 'concedes' early and pays Barnett or promises to.

  • This market resolves to "NO" if they have not publicly resolved the bet by EOD June 1 2023.

    • If Matthew Barnett thinks the bet should have already resolved but Caplan has not conceded, it will still resolve NO.



In the above post of March 21, Caplan admits that GPT-4 getting an A on one of his exams is a big update and bodes ill for his bet. But he writes "I’m not conceding the bet, because I still think there’s a 10-15% chance I win via luck." This market is about whether Caplan's luck will hold out for ~two more months.

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predicted YES

I haven’t seen any concession - just to confirm, I didn’t miss one did I

@pmarca said it best—perhaps Ai reveals not how smart computers can be, but how dumb some people are

It’s obvious that his tests do not measure critical thinking (at all) but simply having memorized what “Krugman” and “Landsberg” (?) have said, plus some overly simplistic black and white thinking.



(GPT’s answers are better than his…)

sold Ṁ10 of NO
predicted YES

I think if a YES bettor (or anyone else) wants this to resolve soon, something you could do is:
-request the midterm exams from Caplan (or, alternatively, find exams of comparable format and difficulty)

-go ahead and get all of the exams 'taken' by an AI system

-see if an econ grad student would grade them for you

If 5/6 of the exams are plausibly As, this might cause an earlier resolution. Of course, if they're not, then it shouldn't resolve this year.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

He notoriously won his brevit bew by holding out. Surely he will delay this one as long as possible

predicted NO

@LachlanMunro *brexit bet

Comment edits on Manifold when

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Bryan's bet was brave,
But AI doesn't save.
He may have to give in,
And admit his sin.

I'm curious what it means for Bryan to win by luck. Like, there's a huge war and no one ever gives an AI all of his exams? Or maybe the one exam it took was especially fluky and the others will be way harder for GPT-4?

Presumably someone is already in the process of administering the other 5 exams.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Rodeo He could win if he dies or if AI progress halts.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@MatthewBarnett seems like AI progress could halt and he still has a good chance of losing. Are you or someone else (e.g. the Collin Gray mentioned in the post) already in the process of administering the other 5 tests to GPT-4?

@Rodeo AI could hallucinate on an exam or two and underperform. That's my guess on what he means by luck.

predicted NO

@Rodeo The problem is that Bryan Caplan needs to grade the exams himself in order for the bet to resolve, and he's allowed to take until 2029 under the terms. Initially I expected him to grade the exams upon request either later this year or next year, but he told me over email that he intends to wait until the deadline to resolve the bet. So, yeah.

predicted YES

@MatthewBarnett ah, gotcha. I guess his most recent post is some evidence that he would resolve if GPT-4 is just obviously consistently doing well on several of his exams. We’ll see!