MANIFOLD
US Senate 2026 """Safe""" Parlay
75%
chance

Resolves YES if, in the 2026 US Senate elections, Republicans win all of AL, AR, FL, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, WV, and WY and Democrats win all of CO, DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA.

(These states were chosen because they were rated as "Solid Republican/Solid Democrat" respectively by the Cook Political Report at the time of market creation.)

I reserve the right to slightly change the resolution criteria within the first 72 hours of this market to better reflect the spirit of the market.

Provisionally resolves once both NYTimes and DDHQ (or similar sources if they become defunct) call all the relevant races and do not retract their calls within 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

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