Current data:

What happens if the 2024 number gets revised?

I think revisions should not count if we're resolving off the first published 2025 number, so that the numbers are comparable.

13th April 2025, I see the 2024 number as -917,835.

@Daniel_MC I'm don't really know much about this topic, but revisions are presumably more accurate so I plan to use the numbers for 2024 as the ones displayed when the 2025 numbers are first released. If revisions are usually biased one way or another, let me know and I'll rethink this.

Also, the numbers are in millions, so it is -918 billion

@bagelfan the issue with that is that the more recent number will not have been revised so it will not be an apples for apples comparison. This would be an issue if the revisions tend to go one way or another.

@Daniel_MC As I said, if you have evidence that the revisions are biased I can change this.

Someone help me understand why the deficit wouldn't at least go down a little when we have tariffed all our allies, and they have mostly waited to retaliate while we "negotiate". Seems like it'll reduce at least a bit, no?

@gamedev first of all, inevitable caves like this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs. Second of all, the trade deficit isn’t just about the US importing less, it’s also about other countries importing more.

@polymathematic Yes, I understand, I work for a company that just got an exemption. The policy is dysfunctional, arbitrarily applied, and constantly changed. But you are mistaken - Americans simply importing less, all else being equal, would lower the trade deficit some. If imports went to zero, we would eliminate the trade deficit, even if we only exported a single apple. If imports go down 1% and everything else remains equal, this resolves YES

@gamedev yeah, it's the "all else equal" bit that matters. if the only thing that changes is we imported less, certainly the deficit would drop. but if it's also the case that other countries respond to our tariffs with their own tariffs (or other policies which discourage their importation of American goods), then our trade deficit could remain the same or even grow. i don't see any reason to presume all else will be equal.

@polymathematic Yeah, understood. That's why I mentioned that most countries have not yet retaliated, it seems likely to me that this whole boondoggle will in some sense accomplish a marginal amount of Trump's stated goals (while making us all much poorer and worse off, of course)

So what would the 2024 deficit be? The sum of the deficits from each month? The average?

edit: grok told me you just add them xD

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Trade deficit can be a bit noisy as a data point. Voting yes right now just for mean reversion and vibes

I initially took a YES position because I thought it was a good price, but now I'm thinking the actual odds are lower, down near 20%. The problem is he's going to do plenty of talking about tariffs during 2025, but I think it's unlikely they'll take effect before 2026. In the meantime, business communities will do what they always do when tariffs are coming: stockpile imports ahead of the price hike. That'll drive the trade deficit higher in the short run.

Additionally, whatever mix of inflation and economic growth we have will make all the numbers a couple percent larger year-to-year. This prediction market doesn't talk about adjustments for that, so I figure that there's a >50% chance that an existing deficit "grows" in 2025, even without meaningful changes.

@DanHomerick based on my reading of the last trump presidency, this is preciely what happened. the overall trade deficit (and specifically with china, who was trump's only real big target his last presidency) the deficit expanded through 2018, and then finally reduced during 2019 and 2020 (altho covid also likely a factor)

sweepified

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