Will Trump reduce the trade deficit at all in his first year?
Basic
2
๐•Š5
2026
58%
chance

Resolves YES if the US trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) for 2025 is less than the US trade deficit for 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

The data source for this question will be the US Census's monthly report on international trade, seen here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf. Specifically, we will take the negation of the total trade balance from Part A, Exhibit 1.

See here for the schedule of their releases: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

sweepified

See also:

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules