Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?
15
Ṁ946
2040
30%
chance

Resolves as YES if credible reports confirm the existence of concentration camps in Taiwan before January 1, 2040.

Criteria for Resolution:

  • Definition of Concentration Camps: For the purposes of this market, concentration camps are defined as facilities where individuals are detained in large numbers without due process, often based on ethnicity, religion, political beliefs, or other discriminatory criteria, and where conditions involve deprivation of human rights, including forced labor, or physical and psychological abuse.

  • Verification: The existence of concentration camps must be verified through credible international sources, such as reports from human rights organizations (e.g., Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), reputable global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters), or official statements from recognized international bodies like the United Nations.

  • Background: The concept of concentration camps is associated with human rights abuses and violations of international law. This market seeks to evaluate the likelihood of such measures being implemented in Taiwan, a country with a complex geopolitical situation and significant tensions with the People's Republic of China.

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MercurialGuesserboughtṀ50NO

Are POW camps that follow the rules of war counted?

Does detention in mainland facilities count?

@24a facilities have to be in Taiwan. If it is a war of aggression against Taiwan, then prisoners of war incarcerated in their home country after cessation of hostilities would count in my view. I'll give this some thought and maybe expand the detail a little bit.