What will happen to Taiwan before 2050?

The international community's acceptance of China's claim over Taiwan and adherence to the "One-China Policy" are influenced by a combination of historical, political, and economic factors. Here’s why many countries and international organizations, including the United Nations, generally align with China's stance:

Historical Context: Following the Chinese civil war in 1949, the defeated Nationalists (Kuomintang) retreated to Taiwan while the Communists established the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. The PRC has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan ever since, considering it a breakaway province that is part of its territory. Initially, many countries, including the United States, recognized the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan as the legitimate government of all China. Over time, as the PRC's power grew, recognition shifted from Taipei to Beijing.
Economic Considerations: China has become a global economic powerhouse. For many countries, the economic benefits of maintaining good relations with China—including access to its vast markets, investment, and economic cooperation—are a significant motivator. Acknowledging the One-China Policy is often a prerequisite for establishing and maintaining these lucrative economic relationships.
Political and Strategic Interests: Engaging positively with China is a strategic choice for many countries due to China's significant role in global affairs, including its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Countries often find it in their national interest to align with China's position on Taiwan to foster better diplomatic and strategic ties.
Diplomatic Norms and Realpolitik: The international system often operates on the principles of diplomatic recognition and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. Since the majority of the world recognizes the PRC as the legitimate government of China, this establishes a norm that affects how Taiwan is recognized. Realpolitik, or a pragmatic approach to politics, further leads countries to accept the status quo, especially if upsetting it could lead to diplomatic or economic fallout.
United Nations and General Assembly Resolution 2758: In 1971, the UN recognized the PRC as the "only legitimate representative of China" and expelled the ROC. This pivotal moment led to a widespread shift in international recognition from Taipei to Beijing, aligning with the UN’s policy and influencing subsequent international relations.

In summary, the reasons behind the international community's support for the One-China Policy are not merely about playing along with a "fantasy" but are deeply rooted in practical and strategic considerations that reflect the complexities of international relations and the significant influence of China on the global stage. These decisions are often driven by a blend of historical precedents, economic benefits, and strategic interests.