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MANIFOLD
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
46
Ṁ1kṀ4k
2027
70%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that an aircraft under the direct sovereign control of a NATO member has shot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before January 1st 2027.

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@spiderduckpig do we know that this was fired towards a target in Ukraine?

@0xseraphim well the press release says

Following the attacks conducted on Sunday, July 26th, by the Russian Federation against the civilian and infrastructure targets in Ukraine, near the river border with Romania, the radar surveillance system of the Ministry of National Defence detected an aerial target at 09:29, approximately 25 km southeast of Sulina. 

@spiderduckpig I'm willing to believe this one qualifies. But is that a drone fired towards a target in Ukraine that missed and then kept going into Romanian airspace? Or a drone that was somehow behind schedule and was still going to Ukraine but went through Romanian airspace? Or a drone that was never fired towards Ukrainian airspace in the first place?

@0xseraphim Presumably the first, since these were shaheds, and their guidance is not very sophisticated

@spiderduckpig

is "presumably" the same as "strong evidence" ?