Putin has a history of having political opponents meet less than fortunate outcomes, usually involving falling from buildings.
For this market to resolve yes, reports of the current wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin death needs to be confirmed by media (preferably several sources, and international rather than RU state news). This is not conditional on foul play, as natural causes, self inflected, act of war and anything in between is valid for this resolution. Being missing and unaccounted for is not sufficient for a yes.
For this market to resolve no, there must indication or news about their death. At 31 dec 2024 @2359, the market will close. I'll give it one day from there to assess the news and then payout the winners.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,245 | |
| 2 | Ṁ351 | |
| 3 | Ṁ338 | |
| 4 | Ṁ257 | |
| 5 | Ṁ182 |
BBC News - Prigozhin confirmed dead after genetic testing - Moscow
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66632924
@RatUziCat I stated "confirmed by media (preferably several sources, and international rather than RU state news)."
Most media outlets from what I can tell are coming to the same consensus, and international news agencies are running the story.
This source is significantly better than an article saying they have 1 unconfirmed report. The intention is to resolve this market at some point on Monday after a few more searches to ensure there wasn't breaking news to the contrary.
@Rederth now it was indirectöy confirmed by the Leader himself. I think this market can resolve by now.
@Svenbonne I haven't seen confirmation articles, just lots of suspected. Do you have some media sources that has directly confirm he was on board and now deceased?
I mentioned in the body of the market that I am looking for preferably several international sources. I don't trust putins word, so I'm going to wait for the aggregate to agree. When Googling about the chief I'm only getting "presumed" dead.
Feel free to bolster the case here with news links though.
Google translated Russian State News source: https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20230823/samolet-1891840284.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
BBC News - Wagner boss Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733
@Tagger did you read the article? 1 of 10 unconfirmed reports said Prigozhin was found dead. Another is an affiliated with the groups twitter. Those are the sources of the article.
Not convinced 😕
@Rederth In fairness, I posted that when it was a breaking story, which has since been updated.
"I suggest another possibility is that Putin will not last that long. The recent attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s former caterer, whose business empire included the Wagner mercenary group, was predicted by Grozev. “I said last January that Prigozhin would turn on Putin within six months — and it just fit within my time frame,” he says. Proving that the Russian model is finite and will implode would scare a lot of other wannabe dictators’ Grozev suspected the June 23 coup attempt was coming the night before because, he says, there was an explosion of telephone traffic between Russia’s senior military — a trove of data that Bellingcat sometimes procures through payment (although Grozev insists it always requires a second corroborative source). Having so far apparently let Prigozhin off the hook, doesn’t Putin now look weak? “Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor,” Grozev replies. “Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors’ and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead. He can’t do that yet. In six months Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup. I’m agnostic between the two but I can’t see neither of these happening.” Is Grozev predicting one or the other will happen? “Yes, you can hold me to it,” he replies."
