1. Not necessarily, if they announce an intention to cease operations by a future date, the OP may resolve the market

2. At the veyr least, you could consider YES shares a speculative asset.

@akrasiac Good point, that hadn't occurred to me. There's still an asymmetry in the potential payouts here, however.

@akrasiac I don't think this should resolve upon an announcement, since they could always change their mind.

It shouldn't even resolve upon Manifold ceasing to exist in 2023, because it could be brought back up before 2025.

@IsaacKing How would you propose to keep the market unresolved after the website ceases to exist?

@akrasiac I'm not. I'm saying that the resolution criteria cannot be met until it is the end of 2025 and Manifold doesn't exist. Resolving this market in some other situation would be improper.

@IsaacKing I agree. I made a version of this market that resolves if Manifold announces they intend to shut down:

If Manifold is gone, YES shares won't pay out.